Global Macro Perspectives
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported right at 388.000 vs. 415.000 consensus; last week revised (up 2.000) reading was at 422.000.
First reading bellow 400.000 since July 2008; The part of the reduction probably comes from seasonal effects (it is hard to seasonally adjust the data accurately on holiday weeks), so we have to wait for a confirmation of a positive trend after holidays pass.
HSBC/Markit China PMI fell from 55.3 to 54.4.
It has to be confirmed till January 20th, 2010 to be regarded as a sell signal.
*** The Big Picture: Retail Sales Increase Most in 5 years ***
*** The Big Picture: Chinese stocks lower again ***
*** Calculated Risk: Dallas Fed: Manufacturing Activity Continues to Grow ***
*** Calculated Risk: Freddie Mac: 90+ Day Delinquency Rate increases in November ***
Conference Board consumer confidence came out at 52.5 vs. 56.3 consensus and 54.3 revised reading for November.
Seasonly adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 10 city composite fell 0.9% In October; On year level 10 city index is up 0.2%.
Number of crude oil drilling rigs fell for 15; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 10.
*** FT BeyondBRICS: China: the long-awaited Xmas gift ***
*** FT BeyondBRICS: Asia markets wrap: Shanghai at 2-month low after rate rise ***
*** The Big Picture: The Only Constant Is Change (1881-2010) ***
*** The Big Picture: Job Offers Rising ***
*** The Big Picture: Going Bankrupt: 100 Bailed Out Banks ***
*** The Big Picture: Lessons from the Muni Bond Market in 2010 ***
*** Reuters: New claims may add to Nakheel’s legal woes: sources ***
*** The Slope of Hope: Some Musings ***
*** The Slope of Hope: My Morning’s Inbox ***
Baltic dry index fell 11.3% last week; Capesize Index was down 13.8%; Panamax Index fell 9.4%; Supramax Index was down 7.4%; Handysize Index fell 1.2%.
I’m getting a little bit worried but to repeat last week’s comment: Iron stockpiles & steel inventory mostly unchanged; Iron ore and steel prices stable. No indication of any major disruptions in Chinese economy. Low rates are probably byproduct of excess supply of ships and seasonal factors (weaker construction steel demand in China during winter months).
POBC raised key one-year lending rate for 0.25% to 5.81%. This was widely expected; I have wrote on this earlier and almost certain there is more of this to come.
Raising interest rates and stalling real-estate prices are a bad cocktail. I will cover China even more extensively next year, as big things could come from here.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 0.5%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 3.3%.
Cargoes for first half of January well covered; Markets activity weak because of holidays.
Weekly economic calendar.
U.S. railroads originated 271,709 carloads, unchanged compared with the same week in 2009 and down 10.0% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was -5.1%.
Merry Christmas to all of my readers!
Working gas in storage fell 184 Bcf from previous week. The consensus was at 180 Bcf.
Storage level higher than year ago.