Niall Ferguson: Empires on the Edge of Chaos
No secret I’m a big fan of Niall Ferguson. This is a great lecture on empire declines.
Baltic Dry Index At 1693, Down 4.5%
Baltic exchange released it’s first pricing after Christmas. Baltic Dry Index was reported down 4.5% at 1,693. Lowest reading since April 2009.
U.S. Factory Orders Rose 0.7% In November
U.S. factory orders rose 0.7% in November. The consensus was at 0.0%, prior reading was at -0.9%.
Factory shipments rose 0.8% vs. prior reading of 0.4%.
Morning Reading – January 4, 2010
*** The Telegraph: Overheating East to falter before the bankrupt West recovers ***
*** Council on Foreign Relations: When Irish IOUs are Smouldering ***
*** Project-Syndicate: Armageddon Can Wait ***
*** Caixin Online: Good Tidings in 2011 ***
*** The Big Picture: AAII Asset Allocation Survey: Bond Holdings at a 10-Month Low ***
*** The Big Picture: BofA Freddie Mac Putbacks Resolved for 1¢ on $ ***
*** Calculated Risk: House Prices: More Pessimistic Views ***
Daily Reading – January 3, 2011
*** Guardian.co.uk: Albert Edwards, SocGen bear, takes a bite out of China ***
*** The Big Picture: What to Expect in 2011 ***
*** The Big Picture: FDIC Bank Closings for 2010 ***
*** Calculated Risk: WSJ: Key to Real-Estate Rebound ***
*** Calculated Risk: Krugman: Deep Hole Economics ***
U.S. Construction Spending Rose 0.4% In November
U.S. construction spending rose 0.4% November vs. 0.1% consensus and 0.7% rise in October. On year level we are at -6.0%.
Improvement, but construction spending overall stil quite weak.
December ISM Manufacturing Index At 57.0
ISM Manufacturing Index was reported at 57.0 vs. prior reading of 56.6 and consensus of 57.0.
Unchanged level of the ISM Manufacturing Index suggest industrial production in the U.S. will grow at current level of 5.5% y-o-y.
China December Federation of Logistics & Purchasing and National Bureau of Statistics PMI At 53.9
China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing and National Bureau of Statistics PMI (“official PMI”) fell from 55.2 to 53.9.
PMI’s for December suggest industrial production growth in December will remain stable.
U.S. Freight Carloads Weekly – January 3, 2011
U.S. railroads originated 256,089 carloads, up 29.3% compared with the same week in 2009 and down 13.4% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was -5.7%.
Looks like railroad traffic is weakening more than warranted by seasonal effects.
New Week Intro – January 2, 2011
Weekly economic calendar
Happy New Year!
Happy New Year! Best wishes for 2010!
U.S. Petroleum Weekly – December 31, 2010
Crude oil stocks fell 1.3 million barrels; Gasoline stocks decreased 2.3 million barrels; Distillate stocks rose 0.2 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks were down 2.5 million barrels; Other oils stocks decreased 2.2 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 9.2 million barrels lower for the week.
Refinery utilization rose 0.1% to 87.8%.
Implied crude oil demand fell 0.5 million barrels.
Crude oil and petroleum product net imports fell0.2 million barrels to 9.2 million barrels.
Refiners reduced crude oil stocks because use of LIFO accounting enables them to keep lower priced inventory on hand; expense higher priced one and consequently pay lower taxes. Demand also recovered a bit.
Going into new year crude oil stocks will probably rise on refiner restocking.
U.S. Natural Gas Weekly – December 30, 2010
Working gas in storage fell 136 Bcf from previous week. The consensus was at 143 Bcf.
Storage level 44 Bcf lower than same time year ago. In short a replay of last’s year oversupply.
Pending Home Sales Index Rose 3.5% In November
Pending home sales index rose 3.5% In November vs. revised rise of 10.1% in October. On year level, the index is down 4.9%.
Generally rising pending home sales are positive for the economy, but currently and until excess unsold housing inventory is cleared rising pending home sales index mean more foreclosed homes are being sold at depressed prices which is a sign of additional pressure on home prices.
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index For December At 68.6
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index was reported at 68.6. The consensus was at 61.0, prior reading at 62.5.
Regional manufacturing surveys signal significant improvement in industrial production in December.