Global Macro Perspectives
Working gas in storage fell 135 Bcf from previous week. The consensus was at 130 Bcf.
Although the draw was above consensus, it’s a disappointment overall as storage level is only 21 Bcf lower than same time year ago. In short – a replay of last’s year oversupply.
Yes…Queensland commodity exports are frozen because of floods, but nevertheless this is looking quite ugly.
Monster Employment Index fell to 130 in December; November reading was at 134.
Monster Employment Index is a gauge for online job demand; so no confirmation of ADP reading here.
nitial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported right at 409.000 vs. 412.000 consensus; last week revised (up 3.000) reading was at 391.000.
Previous reading which was bellow 400.000 was after all a product of seasonal effects. Taking ADP employment into account we can say that U.S. economy is crating jobs at faster pace, but the pace of job losses is also faster than long term average. Even with this improved equation of job creation and job losses the inflow of people into work force will keep unemployment high for some time.
Crude oil stocks fell 4.2 million barrels; Gasoline stocks rose 3.3 million barrels; Distillate stocks increased 1.4 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks were down 2.7 million barrels; Other oils stocks fell 3.4 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 6.3 million barrels lower for the week.
Refinery utilization rose 0.2% to 88.0%.
Crude oil and petroleum product net imports fell 1.3 million barrels to 7.9 million barrels.
Demand is mostly unchanged; stocks are falling on increased exports and smaller imports.
Going into new year crude oil stocks will probably rise on refiner restocking.
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Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 21.4%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 17.4% during the holidays.
Large oversupply of ships in the Gulf. Somewhat strange that cost of shipping fell do much during crude oil price rally.
Baltic Dry Index fell 4.3% today while Queensland floods worsened.
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ISM Non- Manufacturing Index was reported at 57.1 vs. 56.0 consensus; November reading was at 55.0.
Improvements here also.
ADP Employment rose 297.000 in November vs. revised (down 1,000) gain of 92,000 in November. This reading is off the charts, highest since at least 2001 (I don’t have older data).
Nonfarm payrolls on Friday (rule of thumb) could be better than 140.000 consensus.
Challenger’s count of layoff announcements was reported at 32,004 in December vs. 48,711 in November.
Lowest reading since June 2000. That says it all.
U.S. total motor vehicle sales for December rose 2.2% to 12.53 million SAAR. On year level motor vehicle sales are up 12.7%.
Like with other consumer related parts of the economy auto purchases are steadily gaining ground.
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*** Economix: Fearing (Another) U.S. Debt Default ***
*** FT Alphaville: SNB collateral, an Irish and BP non-love story ***
*** The Slope of Hope: Weak Precious Metals ***
Nothing exciting and new upon first (skim)reading.