Global Macro Perspectives
Lot of work on my day job, so I didn’t have time to get to this…
Working gas in storage fell 138 Bcf from previous week. The consensus was at 146 Bcf.
Storage level 107 Bcf higher than same time year ago. In short a replay of last’s year oversupply.
December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary reading was reported at 72.7 vs. 75.5 consensus and 74.5 December reading.
Down slightly
U.S. industrial production rose 0.8% in December. The consensus was at 0.5%, November revised (down 0.1%) reading was at 0.3%. On year level industrial production is up 5.9%.
U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in December. The consensus was at 0.8%, November reading was at +0.8%. On year level retail sales are up 7.6%.
U.S. consumer price index rose 0.5% in December vs. 0.4% consensus and November reading of 0.4%. On year level CPI inflation is running at 1.4%.
*** FT Alphaville: Oil shock-ed ***
*** FT Alphaville: An €80bn mega-inyección for Spanish banks? ***
*** FT BeyondBRICs: China raises bank reserve requirements by 50bps ***
*** FT BeyondBRICs: Indian inflation: more bad news ***
*** The Big Picture: Time to Defang Moody’s and S&P ***
*** FT Alphaville: Vox populi, vox stulti — US-China datapoint ***
*** FT Alphaville: The graphic, gigantic, European bailout fund ***
*** FT BeyondBRICs: S Korea: a small surprise ***
*** FT BeyondBRICs: Indian equities: cause for concern? ***
*** The Big Picture: Gross Says Pimco Not a Buyer of Portugal’s Debt at Sale ***
*** Daily Option Report: VIX Volatility Still On Hold ***
*** Calculated Risk: Trade Deficit declined slightly in November ***
*** Calculated Risk: NAHB Forecast: Single Family Starts to increase 21% in 2011 ***
Crude oil stocks fell 2.2 million barrels; Gasoline stocks rose 5.1 million barrels; Distillate stocks were up 2.7 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks were down 3.4 million barrels; Other oils stocks decreased 3.4 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 0.9 million barrels higher for the week.
Refinery utilization rose 1.6% to 86.4%.
Implied crude oil demand remained unchanged.
Crude oil and petroleum product net imports rose 1.4 million barrels to 9.3 million barrels.
Large gasoline stockpiling because of bad weather. Going into new year crude oil stocks will probably rise on refiner restocking and not so stellar demand.
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 445.000 vs. 410.000 consensus; last week revised (up 1.000) reading was at 410.000.
Again rising; the fall in initial jobless in last few weeks claims was obviously a product of holiday spirit.
U.S. producer price index rose 1.1% in December vs. 0.8% consensus. November reading was also at 0.8%. On year level PPI is up 4.1%.
*** FT Alphaville: Indonesian equities warning du jour ***
*** FT Alphaville: A gasoline snow print ***
*** FT Alphaville: On the implications of a widening WTI-Brent spread ***
*** FT Alphaville: Happy Portugal – market takes down €1.25bn of debt ***
*** FT Alphaville: Save Europe, tax the banks? ***
*** FT Alphaville: EFSF 2.0 ***
*** FT Alphaville: A Fed on hold ***
*** China Financial Markets: China’s lending quota? ***
*** The Big Picture: The Bid Abides (48% Cash) ***
*** The Big Picture: Import prices reflect growing inflation pressure ***
*** Macro Man: 2011 Non-Predictions 5 – FX ***
*** The Big Picture: Inside the Paradox of Forecasting ***
*** Zero Hedge: The US-Japan Congruity Explained By David Rosenberg In Ten Easy Pictures ***
*** Zero Hedge: Who Leaked Last Week’s (Irrelevant) ADP Number? ***
*** Macro Man: Kings and Queensland ***
*** FT Alphaville: Go north, jaded government bond investor? ***
*** Visualizing Economics: Effect of Dividends Reinvested on US Stock Returns since 1871 ***
*** Paper Economy: Beveridge Curve Balancing Act: November 2010 ***
*** Calculated Risk: CoreLogic: House Prices declined 1.6% in November ***
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index rose 2.4% in December after rising 0.4% in November.
Down 1.0%. It keeps going down…
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for January was reported at 92.6 vs. consensus of 94.5 and prior reading of 93.2. The index is trending up, but it’s consistent with weak recovery.