January 20th, 2011 by Belisarius
*** Bloomberg Businessweek: U.S. Stocks Near ‘Significant’ Top, Tom DeMark Says ***
*** Bloomberg: Apple’s `Underdog’ Analysts Outperform Wall Street From Helsinki, Caracas ***
*** Bloomberg: CFA Institute Unable to Grade Africa Exams After Papers Were Lost in Ghana ***
*** The Slope Of Hope: Did You Take A Bite Out Of Apple? ***
*** FT BeyondBRICS: China: are the risks crystallising? ***
*** FT Alphaville: From the desk of Jean-Claude Trichet… ***
*** Macro Man: Apocolypse When? ***
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January 20th, 2011 by Belisarius
China retail sales rose 19.1% in December vs. 18.7% consensus and also 18.7% growth in November.
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January 20th, 2011 by Belisarius
China Consumer Price Index was up 4.6% in August, right at the consensus. November reading was at 5.1%. Most significant contribution to inflation deceleration came from lower food price inflation.
China Producer Price Index was up 5.9% vs. 5.7% consensus and 6.1% November reading.
CPI number looks kind of tweaked, nevertheless the inflation should again pick up in January on increased fuel prices and seasonal effects (Lunar New Year is latter this year).
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January 20th, 2011 by Belisarius
China third quarter GDP growth was reported at 9.8%, slightly better than third quarter growth rate of 9.6%. This time upside came from primary sector (agriculture, forestry…) and services rather than as usually from manufacturing.
In 2010 Chinese economy grew 10.3%,
Still quite high growth rates, I expect China will try to keep it’s economy growing at near 10% growth rate this year also. Biggest headwind will be inflation and with inflation connected interest rate increases. Looking at Q4 data Chinese growth looks quite resilient.
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January 19th, 2011 by Belisarius
*** FT Alphaville: More on the widening WTI-Brent spread ***
*** FT Alphaville: Weirdo Greek debt restructuring ***
*** FT Alphaville: Reflections on the weirdo Greek debt plan ***
*** FT Alphaville: The Pomo flip ***
*** The Big Picture: A Few Thoughts on Steve Jobs / Apple ***
*** The Big Picture: Total Market Cycle ***
*** The Slope Of Hope: We’ve Seen This Movie Before ***
*** Calculated Risk: Record Low Housing Completions in 2010 ***
*** Paper Economy: MBA Application Survey – January 19 2011 ***
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January 19th, 2011 by Belisarius
U.S. housing starts in December fell 4.3% to 529.000 vs. revised (2.000 lower) 553.000 November reading. The consensus was at 550.000. On year level U.S. housing starts are down 8.2%.
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January 18th, 2011 by Belisarius
Housing Market Index for January was reported at 16, unchanged from October. Consensus was at 17
Nothing improving in housing-land..
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January 18th, 2011 by Belisarius
*** FT Alphaville: Chinese inflation through surging online searches ***
*** FT Alphaville: Apple and Steve Jobs ***
*** FT Alphaville: Silver shortage rumours abound ***
*** FT Alphaville: Not a fat finger, just falling US Treasuries… ***
*** The Slope Of Hope: Sky-High Copper ***
*** CBS: Sports Betting: Billy Walters ***
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January 18th, 2011 by Belisarius
Empire State Manufacturing General Business Conditions Index for January came out at 11.92 vs. 12.5 consensus and revised prior reading of 9.89 (revised from 10.57).
Slight improvement, looks like industrial production will continue expanding.
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January 18th, 2011 by Belisarius
*** Streetwise Professor: The Gambler’s Fallacy ***
*** FT BeyondBRICs: Fund file: emerging market bond warning ***
*** FT BeyondBRICs: India: inflation “surging” says Subbarao ***
*** JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN: Is JPM Covering Up a Naked Silver Short Held By China As a Claim Against the Yanks? ***
*** JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN: An Interpretation of the China Silver Short Theory and Fractional Reserve Bullion ***
*** FT Alphaville: Record-breaking, forecast-busting UK inflation ***
*** The Big Picture: QOTD: On the Real Economy ***
*** The Big Picture: BoE has big problem on its hands, Euro rates higher ***
*** The Big Picture: Shanghai Breaks 200-day, Commodities Next to Roll? ***
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January 18th, 2011 by Belisarius
Weekly economic calendar.
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January 17th, 2011 by Belisarius
Housing and commercial real-estate prices in China rose 6.4% y-o-y in December compared with 7.7% reading in November and 7.0% consensus. On monthly level the prices were up 0.3% same as in November.
Adding to China worries, it’s positive that the growth in real-estate value is moderating, but the risk (and fear) is that the prices could start falling.
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January 17th, 2011 by Belisarius
Baltic dry index fell 5.3% last week; Capesize Index was down 14.5%; Panamax Index fell 0.7%; Supramax Index rose 3.9%; Handysize Index fell 0.6%.
Iron ore stockpiles have risen a bit despite Queensland floods, that’s kind of worrying because despite Queensland supply disruptions there is no apparent physical lack of iron ore. On the other hand it seems Baltic dry index is forming a bottom at 1.500 level.
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January 16th, 2011 by Belisarius
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 7.3%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 2.4%.
Markets well supplied with ships available, clean rates probably rose on clean products being shipped to tight West European markets.
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January 15th, 2011 by Belisarius
U.S. railroads originated 285,108 carloads, up 20.4% compared with the same week in 2010 and down 1.1% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was 20.4%.
Significant improvement.
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