February 13th, 2011 by Belisarius
This is the ultimate reference book for history of financial crises. Authors constructed a unique database covering data series from every single major financial crisis in the span of last 800 years, conducted a thorough research and wrote their findings in this book.
This is exactly why I find “This Time is Different” so fascinating – it is completely based on facts.
This book is an absolute must read for everyone interested in economics and financial markets.
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February 12th, 2011 by Belisarius
U.S. railroads originated 267,682 carloads, down 0.1% compared with the same week in 2010 and down 6.3% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was -8.1%.
Large weekly drop as a result of bad weather.
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February 11th, 2011 by Belisarius
Bloomberg: Hosni Mubarak Resignation (Text of Statement)
Hosni Mubarak stepped down as president of Egypt and handed power to the military, bowing to the demands of protesters who have occupied central Cairo for the past three weeks demanding an end to his 30-year rule.
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February 11th, 2011 by Belisarius
February University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary reading was reported at 75.1 vs. 75.0 consensus and 74.2 January reading.
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February 11th, 2011 by Belisarius
U.S. trade balance for December was reported at $-40.6 billion vs. consensus of $-40.5 billion and November reading of $-38.3 billion.
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February 11th, 2011 by Belisarius
*** Pragmatic Capitalism: The bond vigilantes await Portugal with open arms ***
*** The Big Picture: Once More Unto the Breach . . . ***
*** FT Alphaville: Man strolls back into burning platform ***
*** FT Alphaville: Monthly foreclosures start climbing again ***
*** FT Alphaville: Prepare for a major market over-reaction ***
*** China Financial Markets: Chinese stock markets and European politics ***
*** FTBeyondBRICs: Vietnam’s dong: what next? ***
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February 11th, 2011 by Belisarius
Working gas in storage fell 209 Bcf from previous week. The consensus was at 197 Bcf.
Storage level is 71 Bcf lower than same time year ago.
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February 10th, 2011 by Belisarius
*** The Big Picture: The Battle of Bull vs Bear ***
*** The Big Picture: Risk Management: Watch the Hang Seng ***
*** FT Alphaville: Conspiracies and a lack of contango in silver ***
*** FT Alphaville: SEC probes ‘ETF-stripping’ by insider traders — FT ***
*** FT Alphaville: Portugal, unmoored ***
*** FT Alphaville: Return of the ECB bond purchases… ***
*** Macro Man: How to Catch Knives and Weekend at Abdullah’s ***
*** JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN: Showdown in the Metals Markets: Let’s Get Ready to Rumble ***
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February 10th, 2011 by Belisarius
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 383.000 vs. 410.000 consensus; last week revised (up 4.000) reading was at 419.000.
Lot of noise in data; Big weekly decline.
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February 10th, 2011 by Belisarius
Crude oil stocks rising, markets well supplied, demand weak. The price of oil mostly unchanged.
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February 9th, 2011 by Belisarius
MBA mortgage applications fell 5.5%; Prior reading was an increase of 11.3%; On year level MBA Basic Index is down 24.2%.
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February 9th, 2011 by Belisarius
*** The Big Picture: 90/10 Day Was 7 Days Ago, and That Means . . . ***
*** The Big Picture: Are Companies Now Gaming Revenue Estimates? ***
*** FT Alphaville: ‘Nokia, our platform is burning.’ ***
*** FT BeyondBRICs: Chart of the week: the “Arab moment” ***
*** Calculated Risk: A Dab of Color: Transportation ***
*** Calculated Risk: CoreLogic: House Prices declined 1.8% in December ***
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February 8th, 2011 by Belisarius
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for January was reported at 94.1 vs. consensus of 94.0 and prior reading of 92.6.
Highest post-recession reading.
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February 8th, 2011 by Belisarius
POBC raised key one-year lending rate for 0.25% to 6.06%. Timing of the announcement came as a surprise to the markets, as the rise was expected further into the first quarter.
To repeat: Raising interest rates and stalling real-estate prices are a bad cocktail. I will cover China even more extensively next year, as big things could come from here.
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February 8th, 2011 by Belisarius
*** The Economist: Can we trust TIPS? ***
*** FT Alphaville: China’s lunar rates rise ***
*** FT Alphaville: From the FT mailbag ***
*** FT Alphaville: Subprime metals ***
*** FT Alphaville: In Pharaoh’s currency markets ***
*** The Big Picture: Surprisingly Strong Q4 2010 Revenues ***
*** The Big Picture: Nonrevolving consumer credit outstanding at record high ***
*** The Slope of Hope: The Ongoing Bear Wedgie ***
*** The Slope of Hope: Broken Metal ***
*** The Slope of Hope: Picking Off the Sissies, Again ***
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