Global Macro Perspectives
*** Gregor.us: Spare Capacity Theory ***
*** FT Alphaville: Why you really can’t swap Libyan oil for Saudi ***
*** FT Alphaville: Scrambling to swap Libyan crude for Saudi ***
*** FT Alphaville: Nomura’s $220-a-barrel crisis oil call ***
*** FT Alphaville: Eurozone bond buybacks, unmoored ***
*** FT BeyondBRICs: Asian emerging markets and $120 oil ***
*** China Financial Markets: Zaiteku and China’s January inflation ***
Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January was reported at -0.16 vs. revised December reading of 0.18. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 3-month moving average was at -0.1.
CFNAI is pointing to mild economic growth.
Durable goods new orders rose 2.7% in January vs. 2.8% consensus and -0.4% revised fall in December (revised upwards from -2.5%).
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 391.000 vs. 405.000 consensus; last week revised (up 3.000) reading was at 413.000.
Lot of noise in data;. Four weeks moving average slowly moving lower.
Discussing the rising price of oil and its impact on the markets with David Lutz of Stifel Nicolaus, Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO and Saud Masud of the SM Advisory Group.
Sales of existing homes in U.S. rose 2.7% to 5.36 million units SAAR. Consensus was at 5.22 million.
*** FT Alphaville: The third dissenter ***
*** Business Insider: Merrill: Here’s When Surging Oil Starts To Break The Global Economy ***
*** Infectious Greed: Japan’s Phillips Curve Looks Like Japan ***
*** The Reformed Broker: Inequality Illustrated ***
*** JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN: Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – Empire Strikes Back ***
*** JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN: SP 500 and NDX March Futures Daily Charts ***
MBA mortgage applications rose 13.2%; Prior reading was a decrease of 9.5%; On year level MBA Basic Index is down 13.4%.
*** FT Energy Source Blog: Revolutions could rob Opec of its ability to manipulate supply ***
*** FT Energy Source Blog: If Libya revolts, Saudi Arabia could be next ***
*** FT BeyondBRICs: Libya’s threat to oil supplies ***
*** FT Alphaville: Michael Pettis on China’s very own zaiteku ***
*** FT Alphaville:China bears and creative shorting ***
*** Macro Man: Flatulent dictators and the Fed ***
*** The Slope Of Hope: Heigh Ho, Channel! ***
Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., talks about the impact of political protests in Middle East and North African nations, including Libya, on the global economy.
Richmond FED Manufacturing Survey was reported today at 25.0. Prior reading was at 18.0, consensus was also at 18.0.
To repeat: Looks like industrial production will continue expanding.
Conference Board consumer confidence came out at 70.4 vs. 65.0 consensus and 64.8 reading for December (revised from 60.6).
Large positive surprise. Highest reading in three years.
Seasonly adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 20 city composite fell 0.4%; On year level 20 city index is down 2.4%.
Libya in unrest/civil war is having a mayor impact on the oil markets. Crude oil (brent) has yesterday reached post crisis high of 108.7 USD/bbl. The outcome of the Libya crisis is absolutely uncertain and together with other regional instability will be a strong factor for rising oil prices.
High oil price does not bode well with economic growth, so this could be large negative factor for economic growth and inflation.
According to OPEC January data Libya produces approximately 1.6 million barrels of crude per day. This is 3.9% of total OPEC production and 1.8% of world total demand.
Huge, huge mess…with no resolution in sight…