Global Macro Perspectives
U.S. personal income rose 1.0% in January vs. 0.4% consensus and 0.4% rise in December. On y-o-y level personal income is up 4.6%.
U.S. consumer spending rose 0.2% in January vs. 0.4% consensus and 0.5% December reading (revised from 0.7%). On y-o-y level consumer spending is up 4.0%.
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Weekly economic calendar.
Baltic dry index fell 10.4% last week; Capesize Index was down 8.8%; Panamax Index fell 9.6%; Supramax Index rose 9.3%; Handysize Index was up 2.7%.
Iron ore and steel inventory at new all time high. Thermal coal inventory rising fast.
This could be a canary in a coal mine for Chinese economy…
Number of crude oil drilling rigs fell for 15; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 1.
Conclusion: You have to be a vampire to win…
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 11.8%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index was up 11.7%.
As with everything happening this week this was also caused by Libya unrest/civil war. Libya crude oil was primarily exported to nearby markets, so drop in Libya production will have to be substituted from producing countries which are more distant. This caused a rise in shipping rates which will probably continue.
U.S. railroads originated 296,980 carloads, up 8.4% compared with the same week in 2010 and down 0.7% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was also 8.4%.
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February University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment second reading was reported at 77.5 vs. 75.1 preliminary reading and consensus. January reading was at 74.2 .
I already coved Libya importance for crude oil price: Importance Of Libya For World Oil Production.
Few days later, my view is that if Libya doesn’t restart producing with full capacity soon the price of oil will go up.
In U.S.: Markets are well supplied, demand historically speaking weak, refiners cutting refining capacity and crude oil imports. WTI – Brent pricing disparity still very high.
U.S. GDP growth for Q4 was revised from 3.2% to 2.8%; consensus was at 3.3%. Q2 reading was at +2.6%.
Initial pre-release consensus was at 3.5%…we are now almost 1% lower…
Working gas in storage fell 81 Bcf from previous week. The consensus was at 83 Bcf.
Storage level is 23 Bcf lower than same time year ago.
Heating season is nearing its end, the market is well supplied, so no fundamental reasons for natural gas price recovery.
This is it for this winter…
U.S. new home sales fell 12.6% to 284.000 SAAR; Consensus was at 310.000 SAAR, prior reading (revised downward 4.000) was at 325.000 SAAR.
In the western states alone, America may have three times more oil than Saudi Arabia. James Bartis of Rand, David Welch of Stone Energy and Omar Turbi, an expert in US-Libyan relations, weigh in.