U.S. Freight Carloads Weekly – March 11, 2011
U.S. railroads originated 300,953 carloads, up 5.5% compared with the same week in 2010 and down 0.7% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was 1.6%.
U.S. Natural Gas Weekly – March 11, 2011
Working gas in storage fell 71 Bcf from previous week. The consensus was at 78 Bcf.
Storage level is 48 Bcf higher than same time year ago.
March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preliminary Reading At 68.2
March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary reading was reported at 68.2 vs. 76.3 consensus and 77.5 February reading.
China Fixed Asset Investments Up 24.9% In February
China fixed asset investments were up 24.9% y-o-y in February; the consensus was at 23.0%. January reading was not reported.
China Retail Sales Up 11.6% In February
China retail sales rose 11.6% in February vs. 19.0% consensus. January reading was not reported.
Industrial Production In China Up 14.9% In February
Industrial production in China was up 14.9% y-o-y in February; January reading was apparently not reported. The consensus was at 13.0%.
China February CPI Inflation At 4.9%; PPI Inflation At 7.2%
China Consumer Price Index was up 4.9% in February, vs. 4.8% consensus and 4.9% January reading .
In line with expectations, I expect the monetary tightening will continue, but without the need for aggressive actions.
China Producer Price Index was up 7.2% vs. 7.0% consensus and 6.6% January reading. Running ahead of expectation, have to watch this closely.
Video Of The Day: Bloomberg TV – FusionIQ’s Ritholtz Interview About Financial Markets
Barry Ritholtz, chief executive officer at FusionIQ, talks about the outlook for financial markets after the Federal Reserve ends its program of quantitative easing. He speaks with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television’s “Surveillance Midday.”
Daily Reading – Thursday, March 10, 2011
*** Zero Hedge: Exclusive: Bill Gross Dumps All Treasuries, Brings Total “Government Related” Holdings To Zero, Flees To Cash – No QE3? ***
*** self-evident: Reading comprehension quiz ***
*** Zero Hedge: Nomura Commodity Desk Liquidation Blamed For Commodity Weakness ***
*** Macro Man: Yours! ***
*** FT Alphaville: More proof the Chinese have been using copper as collateral ***
*** FT Alphaville: Carry trade as canary in the coal mine ***
*** The Big Picture: The End of QE: Part II ***
*** The Independent: World’s sixth mass extinction may be underway – study ***
U.S. Petroleum Weekly – March 10, 2011
Libya is out of the markets for some time. If demand stays at recent levels crude oil price will go up.
In U.S.: Markets are well supplied, demand historically speaking weak, refining capacity utilization low and crude oil imports. WTI – Brent pricing disparity lower, but still very high.
Refining industry discipline, stockpiling ahead of expected rise in prices and seasonal demand patterns are (very slowly) bringing down stockpiles.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims At 397.000; Up 26.000
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 398.000 vs. 376.000 consensus and last week revised (up 3.000) reading of 371.000.
Four weeks moving average steady.
Spain Downgraded By Moody’s
Moody’s downgraded Spain’s sovereign credit together with the Spanish bank recapitalization fund rating to Aa2 from Aa1. Oultook negative.
Not much happening with Spanish spreads after the downgrade.
China Reports Unexpected Trade Deficit
China trade balance was reported at USD -7.3 billion vs. USD 6.45 billion in January and USD 4.9 billion consensus. Export and import growth were running at 2.4 and 19.4 percent vs. 37.7% and 51.0% y-o-y in January.
Large unexpected surprise, but something I hinted earlier in my dry bulk weeklies. Concerning deficit itself it’s probably result of seasonal effects (Lunar New Year) and POBC tightening measures. I expect some normalization in March, but nevertheless the market reaction could be violent in coming days because this is a game-changer, especially in relation to yuan appreciation calls.
POBC tightening to contain inflation will probably have to be relaxed or even reversed because Chinese government faces two alternatives: 1. higher growth & higher inflation vs. 2. lower growth & lower inflation. The outcome of this is pretty clear.
Video Of The Day: Birinyi, Holland Discuss Stock Market Outlook, Strategy
Laszlo Birinyi, president and founder of research and money management firm Birinyi Associates Inc., and Michael Holland, who oversees more than $4 billion as chairman of Holland & Co., talk about the outlook for the U.S. stock market, investment strategy for equities and some of their stock picks.
Morning Reading – Wednesday, March 9, 2011 – Charlie Sheen Edition
*** Bloomberg: Charlie Sheen Could Teach Wall Street a Lesson: Matthew Lynn ***
*** Climateer Investing: Charlie Sheen Calls on CFTC For Lower Silver Position Limits (JPM) ***
*** FT Alphaville: Where is Charlie Sheen’s CFTC comment? ***
*** Kid Dynamite’s World: On Misinterpreting PSLV’s Premium ***
*** Macro Man: Equities: “Bi-Winning” but for how long? ***
*** FT Alphaville: Back to the future with Europe’s stress tests ***
*** FT Alphaville: More on Japan’s odd metamorphosis… ***
*** FT Alphaville: Iceland vs Greece ***
*** Ludwig von Mises Institute: Oil Shock=More Fed Shock ***
*** Zero Hedge: European Gasoline Hits All Time Record Of $8.632 Per Gallon ***