Rig Count Weekly – April 11, 2011
Number of crude oil drilling rigs rose for 9; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 14.
On world scale number of oil & gas drilling rigs fell for 92 in February.
Tanker Weekly – April 11, 2011
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 5.5%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index was down 1.8%.
Back to the same old story…oversupply…
Daily Reading – Friday, April 8, 2011
*** Macro Man: Spendor Australis ***
*** The Slope Of Hope: Google Has Gone Full ‘Tard ***
*** The Slope Of Hope: Oil Looks Ready to Run ***
*** China Financial Markets: Reforming the banks ***
*** The Big Picture: What is the Source of Record Earnings? ***
*** The Big Picture: Mistakenly ***
*** The Big Picture: The Money Network ***
*** The Big Picture: 10 Twitter Do’s and Don’t ***
*** FT Alphaville: Cut out and keep – Portugal aid timetable ***
*** FT Alphaville: Europe stress test benchmarks and banks revealed [updated] ***
*** Calculated Risk: House Prices: Nominal, Real, Price-to-Rent ***
U.S. Freight Carloads Weekly – April 8, 2011
U.S. railroads originated 305,905 carloads, up 5.4% compared with the same week in 2010 and up 1.4% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was 2.0%.
U.S. Natural Gas Weekly – April 8, 2011
Working gas in storage fell 45 Bcf from previous week. The consensus was at 52 Bcf.
Storage level is 90 Bcf lower than same time year ago and bellow 5-year average
Worst performing commodity, keeping close watch, but no signs that will change in the near future (jet).
Video Of The Day – CNBC: O’Neill On Markets
Goldman Sachs’s Jim O’Neill on markets…
U.S. Petroleum Weekly – April 7, 2011
Main development since latest weekly is realization that light sweet Libyan crude can’t really be substituted by Saudi Arabia and market is in short supply.
Additional to Libyan war, we have unrest in Yemen, strikes in Gabon and postponed elections in Nigeria. Combined these three countries produce 2.8 million bbl of light sweet crude per day.
Absent of a stock market crash, crude oil is bound only up.
Daily Reading – Thursday, April 7, 2011
*** FT Alphaville: Portugal to seek EU aid ***
*** FT Alphaville: Deflated inflation expectations ***
*** FT Alphaville: Vix up, look Sharpe* ***
*** FT Alphaville: Vix wagging ***
*** The Slope Of Hope: The Past Three Years of the Silver Bears ***
*** The Slope Of Hope: Breadth Needs a Pause ***
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims At 382.000; Down 10.000
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 382.000 vs. 385.000 consensus and last week revised (up 4.000) reading of 392.000.
Four weeks moving mostly unchanged in the last 5 readings.
ECB Raises Benchmark Rate By 25 bps
ECB raised key benchmark rate to 1.25% from 1.00%.
MBA Mortgage Applications Fell 2.0%
MBA mortgage applications fell 2.0%; Prior reading was a fall of 7.5%; On year level MBA Basic Index is down 11.3%.
Daily Reading – Wednesday, April 5, 2011
*** The Slope Of Hope: Will This Breakout Be Different? ***
*** The Slope Of Hope: The Bull Market That Won’t Quit ***
*** The Slope Of Hope: Bullish Breakout by Miners ***
*** The Slope Of Hope: Options Pr0n ***
*** FT Alphaville: Portugal meets its debt ceiling… ***
*** FT Alphaville: QEased commodities, chart du jour ***
*** FT Alphaville: Yen moves ***
*** FT Alphaville: Spain drifts away ***
*** FT Alphaville: Forecasting the end of fast growth ***
*** The Big Picture: When Do You Fire a Manager? ***
*** MISH’S Global Economic Trend Analysis: Roubini on China’s Unsustainable, Unbalanced Growth Model; China Unexpectedly Hikes Interest Rates to Counter Inflation, Exorbitant Home Prices ***
*** The Source: Currencies Market Hosts ‘Lobagola’ Party ***
*** Felix Salmon: The unexpected T-bill rally ***
Video Of The Day – Bloomberg TV: HSBC’s Bloom on Yen
David Bloom, global head of currency strategy at HSBC Holdings Plc, talks about the outlook for the yen following last month’s Group of Seven intervention to halt the currency’s appreciation. Bloom also discusses the impact of a European Central Bank rate increase on the euro. He speaks with Mark Barton on Bloomberg Television’s “On The Move.”
FOMC Minutes – April 5, 2011
Inflation is transitory (whatever that means), no sign of removing “extended period” formulation, asset purchasing program to be completed.
Monthly Strategy – April 2011
I have lost flair in making predictions. I even started to think that correct forecasting is impossible. Maybe it is better to look at forecasting only as to the extent “what if” exercise. That’s why this is the first strategy post this year.
I have to come to conclusion that the only relevant judgement on is made by market and this is the key in being a successful in this line of business. What is fair, what is right or what is logical are completely irrelevant questions in speculating. Fundamentals are most of the time only a peripheral factors affecting the prices; in fact fundamentals are major factor only in times of great excesses.
Now, lets get back to writing down my current mind setup.