Global Macro Perspectives
U.S. housing starts in March rose 7.2% to 549.000 vs. revised (33.000 higher) 512.000 February reading. The consensus was at 520.000. On year level U.S. housing starts are down 13.4%.
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S&P affirmed U.S. credit rating – AAA (long term), but changed outlook from stable to negative.
Weekly economic calendar.
Baltic dry index fell 5.8% last week; Capesize Index was down 3.0%; Panamax Index fell 10.7%; Supramax Index was down 3.0%; Handysize Index rose 1.3%.
Huge drop in thermal coal stockpiles; Huge drop in steel inventory; Rising inventory of iron ore. Prices are strong. Monetary tightening still not affecting Chinese commodity demand much.
Number of crude oil drilling rigs fell for 6; Number of natural gas drilling rigs rose for 8.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 4.5%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 1.8%.
U.S. railroads originated 293,798 carloads, up 1.8% compared with the same week in 2010 and down 1.9% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was -4.0%.
The rest of the charts I didn’t have time to post…
U.S. industrial production rose 0.8% in March. The consensus was at 0.6%, February (up 0.2%) reading was at 0.1%. On year level industrial production is up 5.9%.
Empire State Manufacturing General Business Conditions Index for April came out at 21.7 vs. 17.0 consensus and prior reading of 17.5.
Positive surprise.
U.S. consumer price index rose 0.5% in March vs. 0.5% consensus and February reading of also 0.5%. On year level CPI inflation is running at 2.7%.
Year-on year inflation is rising, but nowhere near alarming rates (jet).
China Consumer Price Index was up 5.4% in March, vs. 5.2% consensus and 4.9% February reading. Both food and non-food CPI’s were higher, at 11.7% y-o-y and 2.7% y-o-y, respectively vs. 11.0% y-o-y and 2.3% y-o-y in February. Services CPI also rose to 4.2% y-o-y vs. 3.8% y-o-y in February, pointing to slight (for the time being) wage-driven inflation pressure.
China Producer Price Index was up 7.3% vs. 7.2% consensus and 7.2% February reading. This suggests rising CPI.
More tightening ahead.
China first quarter GDP growth was reported at 9.7%, vs. fourth quarter 2011 growth rate of 9.8%. Consensus was at 9.4%.
The slowdown most notably occurred in secondary industries (mining, constructionand manufacturing) on the back of monetary tightening.