Global Macro Perspectives
Natural gas in storage rose 2 billion cubic feet in the latest week. No draw I speculated about in the UNG post. Closed the UNG postition at small loss. Chart 1. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5-year Range
Bank of America announced that it will repay all bail out funds. Bloomberg link: Bank of America to Repay Bailout, Easing CEO Search. The stock is trading up 4% despite massive dilution. No comment. Initial jobless claims were reported at 457.000 vs. 466.000 and 485.000 consensus. Again falling steady. Bloomberg story: U.S. Jobless Claims Unexpectedly […]
I eagerly started my strategy series and invested opposite the same day. So much on strategy and trading having common points. The United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) has hit new lows yesterday and I couldn’t resist taking a position. I bought ATM April Calls. Had to close FXY position (with a small profit) to […]
Crude oil stocks increased 2.1 million barrels; Gasoline stocks rose 4 million barrels; Distillate stocks fell 1.2 million barrels; Other oils flat; Total crude oil and petroleum products ending stocks up 5.9 million barrels. Refinery utilization rate again below 80%: at 70.66%. Last weeks tick up in utilization caused gasoline stocks rising. Total crude oil […]
ADP unemployment for November just came out at -169.000 vs. -209.000 last month. Similar as with jobless claims, the job loses are coming down, but U.S. economy is still losing jobs. The story of the day in the U.S. yesterdays was GM CEO Fritz Henderson resignation. The resignation followed the Motor Vehicle Sales but apparently […]
I am starting a monthly strategy overview to have my strategy in one place and a to test accuracy of my views. Written revisions and accommodations would also contribute to my investment discipline. Equities I have been surprised by the market strength as the market rejected the Dubai turmoil as a correction catalyst. This has […]
Back to norm. Dubai World announced debt restructuring talks on (only) $26 billion debt, and the crowd has gone wild. WSJ story (with nice interactive extras): Dubai World in Talks on Debt Restructuring. The dollar is falling again, risky assets are rising and the saga continues. New addition to the situation is The Bank of […]
We have first numbers for the Black Friday shopping season start. The number of people shopping increased to 195 million from last’s year 172 million; they have spent $42. 2 billion vs. $42 billion last year which translates into $343 per shopper vs. $372 last year. Nothing new here, the shift to buy discounted merchandise […]
Monday: Financial Federal (FIF), New Jersey Resources (NJR), Comtech Telecommunications (CMTL), Guess? (GES), Cantel Medical (CMN), Gerber Scientific (GRB), Volt Information Sciences (VOL), Thor Industries (THO), Steak n Shake (SNS) Tuesday: Calavo Growers (CVGW), Landauer (LDR), Universal Technical Institute (UTI), Staples (SPLS), Copart (CPRT) Wednesday: Cascade (CASC), Jo-Ann Stores (JAS), Aeropostale (ARO), Synopsys (SNPS), Collective […]
I lot of optimism on housing inventory backlog coming down to 7 months supply. A view from David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff + Associates: So, while this data may well show that the inventory backlog has come down to what seems to be a respectable 7 months’ supply, we also know from the U.S. Census […]
Looks like markets are dismissing the potential Dubai World default as a catalyst for a meaningful correction. Nice outline of the situation by Telegraph: Dubai’s financial crisis: a Q&A. If the markets dismiss this as a not strong enough catalyst it will show the strength of the belief of the global economy is recovering. I […]
First of all, happy Thanksgiving Day to my U.S. readers! Market moving news of the day is definitely Dubai World asking its creditors a “standstill” as it tries to negotiate a extension of maturities for its debt. Bloomberg story: Dubai Debt Delay Rattles Confidence in Gulf Borrowers. Oh, what a surprise, they invested billions in […]
The day was filled with economic data . No clear conviction from the markets. Let’s start. Durable goods orders surprised to the downside falling 0.6% vs. positive 0.5% consensus and 1% rise (all MoM) in September. Ex-transportation orders came at -1.3% vs. 0.8% (all MoM) in September. Personal income and outlays data, on the other […]
Crude oil stocks were 1 million barrels higher than the week before. Gasoline stocks also 1 million barrels higher. Total distillates 0.5 million barrels lower. Other oils stock ended 1.6 million barrels higher. U.S. net imports reached 9.8 million barrels but the rebound in imports coincided with stock increase. Refinery utilization edged higher to 80.25%. […]
U.S. GDP growth has got revised to 2.8% from previous estimate of 3.5%. Although the previous number (conspicuously high) helped to propel the market to new highs, revision doesn’t seem to raise any worries as U.S. equity futures are pointing on a higher opening. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 10 edged higher 0.4% in September while &P/Case-Shiller Composite […]