Global Macro Perspectives
Industrial production rose 0.8% in November vs. 0.6% consensus and 0.1% rise in October. Capacity utilization was at 71.3% in November vs. 71.2% consensus and 70.7% level in October. So, moderate surprise to the upside. Producer prices rose 1.8% on a monthly level and 2.7% on a year level. If we take food and energy […]
Well, with Wells Fargo moving to repay TARP funds that chapter in the economic history will be closed. Citigroup succeeded in repaying yesterday. I expected that move to repay TARP funds and serial stock offerings would bring some strain to the bank share prices (and even broad market), but nothing jet on that front. Yes, […]
Looks like Nakheel PJSC bonds will be paid off in full. Bloomberg link: Abu Dhabi Bails Out Dubai World With $10 Billion.The move has prevented Asian stock exchanges from going into negative territory; Europe is trading up around 1% in average. Short follow up on last weeks U.S. economic data: Jobless claims ticked up reaching […]
Important U.S. earnings this week: Tuesday: Best Buy Co. (BBY), Adobe Systems (ADBE), Wednesday: Apogee Enterprises (APOG), Nordson (NDSN), Joy Global (JOYG) Thursday: Actuant Corporation (ATU), Darden Restaurants (DRI), FedEx Corporation (FDX), General Mills (GIS), Nike (NKE), Research In Motion (RIMM), Rite Aid (RAD), Winnebago Industries (WGO) Friday: CarMax (KMX) Important U.S. economic data: Tuesday: […]
Rules from the famous Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst. I couldn’t agree more. Markets tend to return to the mean over time Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction There are no new eras — excesses are never permanent Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further […]
Asian markets bounced on China industrial production figures. Apparently China’s factory output rose 19.2% in November vs. 18.2% consensus. Exports are running at -1.2% yoy, imports at +26.7% yoy. CPI at 0.6% yoy in November vs. -0.5% yoy in October. PPI rebounded from -5.8% in October to -2.1% in November YoY. New loans at Rmb295bn […]
First big draw happened one week later than I thought. Natural gas in storage fell 64 Bcf. UNG is trading up 7.7%. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures (Weekly) Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5-year Range
Crude oil broke out the range to the downside. The move is surprisingly strong despite some positive stock data this week. Crude oil stocks fell 3.8 million barrels; Gasoline stocks rose 2.3 million barrels; Distillate stocks rose 1.6 million barrels; Other oils were down 1 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks fell 3.8 […]
I feels like the markets are searching for a new theme. The signs of a U.S. dollar strength have scared off recent themes (falling dollar = rising risk assets). Combined with a Bank of America capital issuance and a desperate attempts of Citigroup and Wells Fargo to do the same have completely altered the investing […]
After Germany (the U.S. is stimulating all the time), Japan announced some sort of stimulus. Telegraph story: Japan unveils $80bn of direct spending in $274bn stimulus package. $80 is peanuts for a Japan size of economy. The monetary stimulus was also small. Looks like politicians are trying to convince people they are doing something. Yesterday’s […]
Good that I closed the UNG position, I have saved myself from a lot of profits. U.S. Natural Gas Weekly – 03 December 2009. Like with JPY the entry point was a absolute high/low, but I earned almost nothing. P….. It’s a part of my trading strategy not to loose money, but it’s hard to […]
Well, nothing particularity interesting in news today. I have place a new trade in the last minutes of Friday trading. I bought IYR ATM puts. IYR is iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate ETF. It’s a pure sector leaders/laggards play. We are experiencing selectivity in the stock performance as a consequence of flight to quality. […]
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: Blyth (BTH), Casey’s General Stores (CASY), Pep Boys – Manny, Moe & Jack (PBY), Integral Systems (ISYS), Volt Information Sciences (VOL), Financial Federal (FIF) Tuesday: Comtech Telecommunications (CMTL), SAIC (SAI), Kroger (KR), The Cooper Companies (COO), H&R Block (HRB), AeroVironment (AVAV), CKE Restaurants (CKR), Korn/Ferry International (KFY), Sanderson Farms […]
Well I must admit that I don’t have a clue what’s happening in the markets now. The markets opened positive on large positive surprise in non-farm payrolls and in mid of trading everything reversed. Three reasons come to my mind: first is a deeper look in unemployment numbers; the second one would be the new […]
Nonfarm Payrolls for November came out at -11.000 vs. -100.000 consensus and – 190.000 in September. A clear improvement and a positive surprise for the markets. Chart 1. Non-farm Payrolls Monthly and Yearly Change The unemployment edged lower to 10.0% from 10.2% in December. Consensus was at 10.2%. Chart 2. Civilian Unemployment Rate The equity […]