Global Macro Perspectives
Earnings season starts this week. Looks it will have the same flavor as last couple of earnings seasons. Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: Bank Mutual (BKMU), Skyline (SKY), Alcoa (AA), Audiovox (VOXX), WD-40 (WDFC), Volt Information Sciences Inc. (VOL), Helen of Troy (HELE) Tuesday: The Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Company (GAP), Supervalu (SVU), […]
Well, I was wrong. Nonfarm payrolls for December were reported at -85.000 vs 10.000 consensus and 4.000 the month before (revised up 15.000). Unemployment rate was unchanged at 10.0%. Average hourly earnings was up 0.2% vs. 0.1% consensus and 0.1% in November. Average workweek was unchanged at 33.2 hours. A negative surprise. Weak negative reaction […]
Working gas in storage fell 153 Bcf from the previous week. We almost returned inside the 5 year average, supportive to natural gas price. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5-year Range
As I already wrote in multiple posts, I expect employment figures to post a positive surprise on Friday. Well, it seems that the Labor Department seasonal adjustments will provide large help to report positive data. New York Post Story: Why the government’s job figures won’t add up. Since so few jobs were created in December […]
Crude oil stocks rose 1.3 million barrels for week ending 1 January; Gasoline stocks grew 3.7 million barrels; Distillate stocks fell 0.2 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks fell 3.0 million barrels; Other oils were down 2 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks decreased 1.8 million barrels. Refinery utilization remained mostly unchanged at 79.9 %. […]
It’s hard for me to focus on the markets, as action and especially news flow seem pretty boring to me. The same stories (forecast) all over and over again… Well, it all comes to unemployment figures on Friday, maybe we will have some sense on the future direction of the markets. Lot of hype on […]
ISM Manufacturing Index for December came out at 55.9 vs. 54.8 consensus and 53.6 reading for November. Construction spending for November fell -0.6% M-o-M (-13.2% Y-o-Y) vs. -0.5% consensus and flat reading for October. The news of the day came out of China. China Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 56.1. Bloomberg story: Chinese Manufacturing Grows […]
We start with a busy week. Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: Skyline (SKY), Audiovox (VOXX), Texas Industries (TXI), Matrix Service (MTRX), Calavo Growers (CVGW), Tuesday: Carter’s (CRI), SYNNEX (SNX), Sonic (SONC), Wednesday: Monsanto (MON), Immucor (BLUD), Zep (ZEP), RPM International (RPM), UniFirst (UNF), Acuity Brands (AYI), Christopher & Banks (CBK), Worthington Industries (WOR), Shaw […]
Equities Equity performance was impressive in recent month, down to the last trading day of the year. Thursday trading showed that the investors are not so confident that the upside will continue, revealing, maybe a moment of truth. Everybody is long because of fear not to miss further gains, but scared of a potential slip. […]
Happy New Year! Lots of luck with your investing!
Working gas in storage fell 124 Bcf from the previous week. Similar as with crude oil rate of decrease in stock is falling. I would say a revisit to the lower end of trading range is quite possible. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5-year Range
Crude oil stocks fell 1.5 million barrels for week ending 25 December; Gasoline stocks decreased 0.4 million barrels; Distillate stocks fell 2.1 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks fell 1.5 million barrels; Other oils were down 2 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks decreased 8.1 million barrels. Refinery utilization remained mostly unchanged at 80.3 %. […]
Belisarius has a quite severe case of cold, so light posting today. Consumer confidence for December came out at 53 vs. 52.9 consensus and 49.5 prior reading. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices came out flat. Since the indexes are three month rolling averages, fatigue in house price recovery is evident. Chart 1. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Well, I it is safe to say that again markets rallied on no improved fundamentals and on light volume during holiday time. The most profitable companies have lagged during this run. Bloomberg link: Most Profitable CEOs Get Smallest Gains in S&P 500. Anything could happen, the rally could last…. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao again reaffirmed […]
I would always go with Goldman Sachs. Since the sell side analysts and mainstream media are on the story, probably the majority of a downward move has been done. Bloomberg story: Morgan Stanley Sees 5.5% Note as U.S. Faces Deficits. As I already wrote in Shorting Long Dated Treasuries, I believe this is one of […]