Global Macro Perspectives
Working gas in storage fell 191 Bcf from the previous week. Cold weather is helping the price, but I’m still indecisive if the winter draw will be strong enough to clear the stockpiles for a summer filling. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5-year Range
The initial jobless claims positively surprised declining 40.000 from the prior week and reaching 440.000. The consensus was at 467.000. It looks that combined with census hiring the positive cold continue. The markets yesterday closed positively yesterday on news that E.U. will back up Greece. The statement was obviously a product of lack of consensus. […]
The equity indexes moved higher on the statement by EU officials and European politicians on Greece. In short the statement offers no concrete solution; it orders Greece to cut it’s deficit; to solve the “statistical measurement problems”, even calls the IMF… A mess and we move higher on that…
The quantity of news articles and blog post on Greece reached greatest number ever. Too much of attention to a issue that is important to the markets only if we look at it as a warning signal. The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly rose to $40.2 billion vs. $35.7 billion consensus and $36.4 billion November. Well, […]
Marvin King: It was at this press conference one year ago that I explained the asset purchase programme to you. That was at a time of sharply falling output and collapsing confidence. Since then, the position has improved considerably. Output has stabilised and confidence has recovered. The additional money created by the asset programme will […]
One of the most important piece of data being reported this week is Chinese money supply. When giving a little thought to the meter, it gives a negative impulse to the markets turned both ways. If the growth continues we have asset bubbles forming and inflation threat; If growth slows down we have a threat […]
Markets still focus on Europe and in particular Greece. There are some rumors today that Unicredit and Deutsche bank have ceased to accept Greek government bonds as a collateral; there are also some rumors that the capital flight from Greece is reaching alarming levels. It looks the Greece story is approaching its climax and we […]
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: CVS Caremark (CVS), Lincoln National (LNC), Principal Financial Group (PFG), Lorillard (LO), Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG), Loews (L) Tuesday: Cameron International (CAM), Cerner (CERN), Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH), Molson Coors Brewing (TAP), Biogen Idec (BIIB), Walt Disney (DIS), The Coca-Cola Company (KO), EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) Wednesday: Omnicom […]
As I wrote yesterday: Can’t See The Forest For The Trees; the EU deficit and debt problems are far smaller than for the U.S., particular U.S. states, U.K. and Japan. Jean- Claude Trichet seems to agree. Bloomberg story: Trichet Struggles to Convince on Euro-Area Solidity. Still, Trichet said the “solidity” of the euro area “is […]
Working gas in storage fell 115 Bcf from the previous week. Natural gas is holding well through today sell of. Enigma to me why… Without few cold weeks the end of winter stockpiles could be higher than last year, which means another tough year for the natural gas markets. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart […]
The market looks like today is just an intro. The 1.085 level broken, and technicians say the next target is 1.035 (I don’t believe in that, but since a lot of investors looks at that…). Beside bad initial jobless claims (480.000 vs. 455.000 consensus and 470.000 consensus) the main theme is PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, […]
Crude oil stocks rose 2.3 million barrels for week ending 29 January; Gasoline stocks increased for 2 million barrels; Distillate stocks fell 0.9 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks decreased 3 million barrels; Other oils were down 1.9 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks rose 0.8 million barrels. Refinery utilization fell to a post Lehman […]
The markets managed to find new strength to escape negative sentiment from the last week. It looks that the S&P 500 support was broken for just one afternoon and that could prove to fuel further short term gains. No major economic data today, so just a short look at yesterdays. The big news was ISM […]
The index was reported at 57.4, up from 56.1 in the previous month. Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist for China at HSBC said: Industrial activity continues to accelerate, implying stronger GDP growth in 1Q. But rising input and output prices also point to greater inflationary pressure, which will likely prompt more tightening measures in the coming […]
Equities We have seen a meaningful correction in equities in recent couple of weeks, we have a market that fails to react to presumably good news, we have low levels of cash in equity mutual funds and still high number of bulls; high beta stocks suffered massively; For me this is a setup for reversal, […]