Global Macro Perspectives
Crude oil stocks rose 3.0 million barrels for week ending 19 February; Gasoline stocks decreased for 0.9 million barrels; Distillate stocks fell 0.6 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks decreased 2.3 million barrels; Other oils fell 1.1 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks rose 1.4 million barrels. Refinery utilization rose from 79.8% to 81.2%. Crude […]
New home sales fell 9.7% in January to 309.000 SAAR vs. December reading of 342.000 and 360.000 SAAR consensus. Yes, its winter, but it’s disastrous figure anyhow. Chart 1. U.S. New Home Sales SAAR MBA Purchase Applications Index also fell -7.3% to the lowest level since 1997. It’s a leading indicator, so probably more trouble […]
S&P/Case-Shiller Composites 10 fell 0.2% in December; S&P/Case-Shiller Composites 20 fell 0.3% in December. We have home prices declining for two consecutive months. Off course this has lot to with seasonal factors. The important question is will the prices will hold up in summer. Chart 1. S&P/Case-Shiller Composites Chart 2. S&P/Case-Shiller Composites Percent Change From […]
Markets are down, the negative surprise was Conference Board Consumer Confidence which came out at 46 vs. 55 consensus and 56.5 for January. Chart 1. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Press release. Consumers’ assessment of current-day conditions soured in February. Those claiming conditions are “good” decreased to 6.2 percent from 8.5 percent, while those claiming business […]
Some interesting and controversial comments and predictions from Marc Faber in today’s media reports: Bloomberg story: China New Village Makes Chanos See Dubai 1,000 Times. “It does not make sense for China to build more empty buildings and add to capacities in industries where you already have overcapacity,” Faber told Bloomberg Television on Feb. 11. […]
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: DTE Energy (DTE), Lowe’s (LOW), Campbell Soup (CPB), Nordstrom (JWN), Constellation Energy Group (CEG) Tuesday: MedcoHealth Solutions (MHS), Target (TGT), Vornado Realty Trust (VNO), Macy’s (M), Medtronic (MDT), Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD), The Home Depot (HD), Sears Holdings Corporation (SHLD), NRG Energy (NRG), Range Resources (RRC), Autodesk (ADSK) […]
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 2.4% last week while Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 3.8%. Similar as in dry bulk everybody waits for Chinese buyers/charterers to return to markets. With winter season being nearly over we will probably have a seasonal weakness here till at least April when driving demand kicks in. Chart 1. Baltic […]
Baltic dry index rose 5.6% in the last week. Capesize Index outperformed the BDI, Panamax Index was in line, while Supramax and Handysize Index underperformed. The market action seems like a result of market participants fixing Capesize vessels in anticipation of China return to the markets after the this week New Year celebration and on […]
I was on the road yesterday, so the usual service suffered… The most important piece of news yesterday was FED’s decision to increase the discount rate by 0.25%, to 0.75%. The measure has a marginal real impact on the banking sector, but it could have large psychological impact. The political and media orchestrated “recovery” pressures […]
Crude oil stocks rose 3.1 million barrels for week ending 12 February; Gasoline stocks increased for 1.6 million barrels; Distillate stocks fell 2.9 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks decreased 2.9 million barrels; Other oils were flat; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks fell 2.4 million barrels. Refinery utilization rose from 79.1% to 79.8%. Crude oil and […]
Working gas in storage fell 190 Bcf from the previous week. Cold weather is helping the stockpiles draw, but we are still above both last year and 5 year average levels. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5-year Range
The markets move exclusively on currency moves. The lack of market receptiveness of economic data shows that we are in some sort of irrational mode again. Data yesterday was mixed but with small deviations from the expected values. Empire state manufacturing survey general business conditions index was a positive surprise of the day and was reported […]
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: US: Presidents’ Day Tuesday: Nabors Industries (NBR), FMC Technologies (FTI), Genuine Parts Company (GPC), Kraft Foods (KFT), Qwest Communications International (Q), Waste Management (WM), Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) Wednesday: NetApp (NTAP), Applied Materials (AMAT), NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), Questar (STR), Host Hotels & Resorts (HST), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), XTO […]
Baltic dry index fell 5.3% in the last week. Panamaxes outperformed the BDI, while Capesizes underperformed. For the time being dry freight weakness is due the slowdown of Chinese imports because of Chinese New Year and accompanying. This is also a reason for Capesize underperformance because this type of ships usually haul iron ore and […]
Crude oil stocks rose 2.4 million barrels for week ending 5 February; Gasoline stocks increased for 2.3 million barrels; Distillate stocks fell 0.4 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks decreased 1.3 million barrels; Other oils were down 1 million barrel; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks rose 1.9 million barrels. Refinery utilization rose from the post Lehman […]