Global Macro Perspectives
Crude oil stocks rose 4.0 million barrels for week ending 26 February; Gasoline stocks increased for 0.8 million barrels; Distillate stocks fell 0.8 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks decreased 0.5 million barrels; Other oils fell 2.9 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks fell 0.4 million barrels. Refinery utilization rose from 81.2% to 81.9%. Crude […]
Greece government introduced yesterday a new austerity package and a tax increases. The value of the package is 4.8 billion of EUR. Half is aimed at spending cuts and half on tax increases. The tax increases will only ad to the dead spiral decreasing economic activity, and then again decreasing tax revenues… But that is […]
Looks like both are topping out, the official in an ugly way. We will see whether the official one will again lead the unofficial one. Chart 1. China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing and National Bureau of Statistics PMI / HSBC China Manufacturing PMI
Almost every piece of data is on consensus. Slow growth in income and outlays; savings falling. The rates are small, too small to make a needed difference in consumer spending. Chart 1. Personal Income Chart 2. Personal Outlays Chart 3. Personal Savings % Of Disposable Personal Income
ISM Manufacturing Index came out at 56.5 vs. prior reading of 58.4 and consensus of 57.5. Chart 1. ISM Manufacturing Index
Equities In the macro arena we have leading indicators rolling over, and a stream of worse-than-expected data pieces on U.S. housing, U.S. employment, U.S. durable goods ordered and large move lower by consumer confidence. Seems that the markets do not appreciate the data. Things that move the markets are only FED policy on rates, dollar […]
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: CMS Energy (CMS), Scientific Games (SGMS), Rowan (RDC), Overseas Shipholding (OSG), Southern Union (SUG), Public Storage (PSA), Sotheby’s (BID), Mariner Energy (ME), Intrepid Potash (IPI), Quicksilver Resources (KWK), Edison International (EIX), Dress Barn (DBRN), Warnaco Group (WRC), El Paso (EP) Tuesday: Staples (SPLS), AutoZone (AZO), United Natural Foods (UNFI), […]
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 0.2% last week while Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 0.5%. Nothing special happening. Chart 1. Baltic Tanker Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Tanker Indexes
Baltic dry index rose 0.9% in the last week. Capesize Index underperformed the BDI, Panamax Index, Supramax and Handysize Index outperformed. Nothing major on the news front. Improved activity in the Capesize, but the rates fell (probably because of falling iron ore/ final product price differential). Strong rates in smaller ship segments. Chart 1. Baltic […]
Existing home sales fell 7.2% to 5.050.000 million SAAR. Consensus was at 5.500.000 million. An ugly number, detoriation in U.S. housing continues. Chart 1. Existing Home Sales
We have clear roll over of leading indicators in recent weeks and a deterioration in housing, jobless claims, durable goods orders today and bad consumer confidence reading. Seems that the markets do not appreciate the data. Things that move the markets are only FED policy on rates, dollar strength and Greece debt problems. China credit […]
Initial jobless claims rose 23.000 to 496.000- The consensus was at 460.000. It’s not a “V” shaped recovery at all. Chart 1. Initial Jobless Claims
A negative surprise if we take airplanes out; Durable goods orders rose 3% vs. 1.5% consensus and 0.3% prior reading; Durable goods orders excluding transportation fell -0.6% vs. 0.9% growth in December. Chart 1. Durable Goods Orders Chart 2. Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation
Working gas in storage fell 172 Bcf from the previous week. Cold weather is helping the stockpiles draw, but the spring is nearing fast. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5-year Range
The important part: The FOMC continues to anticipate that economic conditions–including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations–are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. Full version.