Global Macro Perspectives
Apparently the agreement on potential bailout of Greece has been reached. Bloomberg story: Sarkozy Reverse on German IMF Demand Caps Losing Week. The whole story with the Greece is stupid, they have not defaulted jet, so they do not have to be saved. Only thing it could help them in the moment is an EU […]
All the fuss yesterday was because of this: When these tools are used to drain reserves from the banking system, they do so by replacing bank reserves with other liabilities; the asset side and the overall size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet remain unchanged. If necessary, as a means of applying monetary restraint, the […]
Working gas in storage rose 11 Bcf from previous week. Price vise the natural gas futures are getting heavily oversold. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average
Initial jobless claims came out at 442.000. The consensus was at 450.000. Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
Crude oil stocks rose 7.2 million barrels for week ending 19 March; Gasoline stocks fell for 2.7 million barrels; Distillate stocks decreased 2.4 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks were flat; Other oils stocks decreased 1.1 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks increased 0.4 million barrels. Refinery utilization rose from 80.6% to 81.1%. Crude oil […]
New home sales fell -0.3% in February to 308.000, consensus was at 315.000. The disappointing news on U.S. housing continue… Chart 1. New Home Sales
Durable good orders rose 0.5% in February vs. 1% consensus and 3% rise in January. Transportation taken out the figure was 0.9% vs. -0.6% in January. Chart 1. U.S. Durable Goods Orders Chart 2. U.S. Durable Goods Orders Ex. Transportation
Well, S&P 500 is moving steadily to 1200. Equity markets are disregarding anything happening in the real world, both positive or negative. VIX, together with historical volatility is flirting with the post Lehman lows. Everything is just fine. It looks nothing will change, but I’m sure it will. Chart 1. S&P 500 Chart 2. VIX
Existing home sales fell 0.6% to 5.02 million SAAR. Consensus was at 5.0 million. Chart 1. Existing Home Sales
The number of natural gas drilling rigs steadily increasing; bad news for natural gas price. Chart 1. Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Change Chart 2. Baker Hughes Weekly U.S. Rig Count Chart 3. Baker Hughes Monthly World Rig Count
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: Phillips-Van Heusen (PVH), Volt Information Sciences (VOL), Texas Instruments (TXN), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Tiffany & Co. (TIF), Scholastic Corporation (SCHL) Tuesday: Darden Restaurants (DRI), Progress Software (PRGS), KB Home (KBH), Jabil Circuit (JBL), Sonic Corp (SONC), Walgreen (WAG), Carnival (CCL), Adobe Systems (ADBE) Wednesday: Red Hat (RHT), Paychex (PAYX), General […]
Baltic dry index fell 3.6% in the last week due to massive 18.6% drop in Capesize Index. Panamax, Supramax and Handysize Index ended all in positive territory. The Capesize Index fell due to increased supply of available vessels which outnumbered the also increased number of cargoes needed to be transported and due to capsize/panamax substitution […]
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 16.0% last week while Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 4.6%. Strong demand for crude transportation, weak for products. Interesting, on shore storage near record levels, a lot of oil traveling on tankers, contango easing (lower roll yield for oil stored on sea). I would say we are heading towards short […]
Working gas in storage fell ONLY 11 Bcf from the previous week. We probably see a new post Lehman low for the natural gas this spring or summer. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5-year Range
CPI less food & energy came out at consensus of 0.1%. Chart 1. Consumer Price Index Less Food & Energy MoM