Global Macro Perspectives
HMI came out at 19 vs. 15 in March. The gain was fueled by present condition component and by traffic of perspective buyers; future expectations lagged. The tax credit expires with the end of the April, we will see what happens then… Chart 1. NAHB / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index
Working gas in storage rose 87 Bcf from previous week. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average
U.S. industrial production rose 0.1% in March. The consensus was at 0.8%, February reading at 0.1%. Capacity utilization rose from 72.7% in February to 73.2%; the consensus was at 73.4%. Chart 1. U.S. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Initial jobless claims were reported at 484.000. The consensus was at 440.000, last week reading was at 460.000. Additional work is needed on estimates…. Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
Crude oil stocks fell 2.2 million barrels for week ending 9 April; Gasoline stocks decreased for 1.0 million barrels; Distillate stocks rose 1.1 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks increased 1.1 million barrels; Other oils stocks rose 0.2 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 0.3 million barrels lower than the week before. Refinery utilization […]
Consumer price inflation for March was reported at 0.2%, right at the consensus. The prior reading was 0%. The core inflation was at 0%, vs. prior reading and consensus at 0.1%. No inflation, nor any hint of it. Chart 1. Consumer Price Inflation
MBA mortgage applications fell 9.6% for week ending 9 April, the week before reading was at -11%. The increase came probably due to FHA increasing mortgage insurance premiums. Bad data readings for housing continue. Chart 1. MBA Mortgage Applications
Retail sales rose 1.6% in March . The consensus was at 1.2%, February reading at 0.3%. Autos taken out, the figure was 0.6%; the consensus was at 0.5%; prior reading at 0.8%. The Easter was earlier this year, so noting to get excited here. Chart 1. U.S. Retail sales
Data point from yesterday. U.S. trade balance for February was reported at $-39.7 billion vs. consensus of $-39 billion and a January reading of $-37.3 billion. Chart 1. U.S. Trade Balance
With the short term target (almost) reached I would take the money off the table. Chart 1. S&P 500
Contango in crude oil futures increased in the last few days, making the roll trade attractive again. This is a clear sign that there is excess supply over demand and that the demand and price expectations are high. Profitable roll trade will bring additional money to the markets making oil price harder to decline. Chart […]
Total of 11 new drilling were added to already operating ones: 3 additional crude oil rigs and 10 additional natural gas rigs. Chart 1. Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Change Chart 2. Baker Hughes Weekly U.S. Rig Count Chart 3. Baker Hughes Monthly World Rig Count
Well, the time has come to put the money on the table. The problem is that the amount promised has to probably be multiplied by a factor of 3 to be enough to finance Greek budget deficit and refinance Greek public debt, to only subsequently result in an wasted time and money. Again, only principal […]
And the earnings season kicks off… Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: Alcoa (AA), PacWest Bancorp (PACW), JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT), Polycom (PLCM), Heartland Express (HTLD) Tuesday: Intel Corporation (INTC), Westamerica Bancorp (WABC), Linear Technology (LLTC), Fastenal (FAST), Healthcare Services Group (HCSG), CSX (CSX) Wednesday: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), ADTRAN (ADTN), W.W. Grainger […]
Baltic dry index fell 2.6% last week. Panamax and Supramax Index ended in positive territory while Capesize and Handysize Index ended in negative territory. Chinese steel mills are quite unhappy with the new iron ore price setting mechanism and especially iron ore price. Their efforts are to substitute Brazilian and Australian iron ore with Indian […]