Global Macro Perspectives
Looks like politicians have managed to calm the markets down with words of support for a Greek bailout. Apparently the newly issued debt will be junior to the one outstanding. There is even some talk that the program would be a fully funded 2-year program. This means something like $100 – $150 billion. Greek government […]
Initial jobless claims were reported at 448.000. The consensus was at 447.000, last week revised higher reading was at 459.000. Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
Nothing major. FED Press Release. Economic activity picking up; Business spending improving; Construction spending not; Labor market beginning to improve. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the labor market is beginning to improve. Growth in household spending has picked up […]
Crude oil stocks rose 2 million barrels for week ending 23 April; Gasoline stocks fell 1.2 million barrels; Distillate stocks rose 2.9 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks increased 3.6 million barrels; Other oils stocks rose 1.1 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 12.9 million barrels higher than the week before. Refinery utilization rose […]
MBA mortgage applications fell 2.9% for week ending 16 April, the prior reading was an increase of 13.6%. Large surge in purchase index (+7.4%) was more than offset by falling refinance index (-8.8%). Chart 1. MBA Mortgage Applications
Euro Stoxx 50 broke all the moving averages and moved bellow the trend line. Chart 1. Euro Stoxx 50
Well, the Greek government bonds are getting destroyed, Portuguese follow suit. European politicians have to send some kind of message of reassurance to the markets otherwise we could be bound for a quite of a collapse. Chart 1. Greek Government Bond Yield Curve Chart 2. Portugal Government Bond Yield Curve
Consumer Confidence came out at 57.9 vs. 53.5 consensus and 52.5 for March. Large positive surprise. Chart 1. Conference Board Consumer Confidence
10 city composite fell -0.6% and 20 composite fell 0.9% in February. Keeping in mind that this is 3 month rolling average. Chart 1. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 10 Chart 2. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20
All the fuss today is the markets realizing that EUR 45 billion is not enough to save Greece from debt restructuring. Looking at the yield curves markets believe maturities shorter than 2 years will be paid in full. Longer duration holders could see some principal loss in debt restructuring. Portugal off-course followed Greece lead. Markets […]
The total number of drilling rigs operating in North America fell for 9 rigs. Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 17 rigs; number of crude oil rigs rose for 8 rigs. The natural gas price rebounded a bit on the decrease of natural gas drilling rigs number. Chart 1. Baker Hughes U.S. Rig […]
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: Texas Instruments (TXN), Caterpillar (CAT) Tuesday: AFLAC (AFL), 3M (MMM), United Parcel Service (UPS), Ford Motor (F), Norfolk Southern (NSC), Newmont Mining (NEM), Automatic Data Processing (ADP), EI DuPont de Nemours & Co. (DD) Wednesday: Express Scripts (ESRX), Comcast Corporation (CMCSA), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), Visa (V), WellPoint (WLP), […]
Baltic dry index rose 0.1% last week. Capesize Index gains were offset by Panamax Index losses. Supramax and Handysize Index almost unchanged. Not much happening here also…Chinese buyers cutting back on iron ore import volumes thereby hurting capesize rates; Iron ore producers holding prices high. Chart 1. Baltic Dry Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic […]
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 2.5%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index increased 6%. A touch of reality coming to the markets with vessel owners realizing the May demand could be weaker than (over-optimistically) expected. Despite much effort your favorite blogger didn’t find a single interesting story in the sector this week. Chart 1. Baltic Tanker Indexes […]
Durable good orders fell 1.3% in March vs. 0.4% consensus and 0.5% rise in February. Transportation taken out the figure was an increase of 2.8% vs. 0.9% in February. Chart 1. U.S. Durable Goods Orders Chart 2. U.S. Durable Goods Orders Ex. Transportation