Global Macro Perspectives
Is this the big one? Although your favorite author was skeptical on the recent bull run, he definitely didn’t things will unwind so fast. Where to now? It feels further south. The main issue is that a EU “nuclear” option, did not reassure the markets. And there is no other better fixes… Only possible good […]
MBA mortgage applications fell 1.5% for week ending May 14, the prior reading was an increase of 3.9%. Chart 1. MBA Mortgage Applications
Consumer price inflation for April was reported at -0.1%, vs. consensus of 0.1%. The prior reading was 0.1%. The core inflation was at 0%, vs. prior reading of 0.0% and consensus of 0.1%. A hint of deflation. Chart 1. U.S. Consumer Price Inflation
PPI fell to -0.1% in April vs. 0.1 consensus and 1.7% rise in March. Chart 1. U.S. Producer Price Index
U.S. housing starts were reported at 672.000 vs. 626.00 March reading. The consensus was at 650.000. Building permits in the same period fell 11.5% to 606.000. Chart 1. U.S. Housing Starts Chart 2. U.S. Building Permits
I have to say I usually don’t agree with the guy, but I have to say that now he is probably on the mark: “The simple misconception is people trying to equate pure economic logic with social political reality,” O’Neill said in an interview from his office in London today. “The Germans and French are […]
We had 16 more oil drilling rigs operating and 2 natural gas operating rigs less for the week ending May 14 in the U.S. Chart 1. Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Change Chart 2. Baker Hughes Weekly U.S. Rig Count Chart 3. Baker Hughes Monthly World Rig Count
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: Agilent Technologies (A), Valspar (VAL), Lowe’s Companies (LOW) Tuesday: Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), Analog Devices (ADI), The TJX Companies (TJX), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Wal-Mart Stores (WMT), The Home Depot (HD), Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ) Wednesday: Eaton Vance (EV), Chico’s FAS (CHS), Synopsys (SNPS), PetSmart (PETM), Autodesk (ADSK), Polo Ralph […]
Another strong week for dry freight. Baltic dry index rose 8.9% last week, again on the back of 10.5% Capesize Index gain. Panamax, Supramax and Handysize Index also recorded gains, but underperformed the broader index suggesting that iron ore is the game. On the positive side we have China steel inventory coming off, decreased China […]
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 10.3%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 1.1%. International Energy Agency (IEA) reduced demand figures (especially on the call for OPEC crude and estimates of increased OECD stocks day cover) did not lower the rates, just contrary. Strong dirty and soft clean rates could again be a sign of weak demand […]
Lowest USD/EUR exchange rate in almost 4 years. Parity is at sight. Chart 1. Euro Index Daily Chart 2. Euro Index Monthly
U.S. industrial production rose 0.8% in April. The consensus was at 0.6%, March reading at 0.1%. Capacity utilization rose from 73.2% in March to 73.7%; the consensus was at 73.7%. Chart 1. U.S. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Retail sales rose 0.4% in March . The consensus was at 0.2%, March reading of 1.6%. Autos taken out, the figure was also 0.4%; the consensus was at 0.5%; prior reading at 0.6%. Chart 1. U.S. Retail sales
Working gas in storage rose 94 Bcf from previous week. Well, the storage will probably be record full before the heating season. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average Chart 3. Natural Gas Futures Curve
Initial jobless claims were reported at 444.000. The consensus was at 440.000, last week revised reading was at 448.000. Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims