Global Macro Perspectives
Nonfarm Payrolls for November came out at -11.000 vs. -100.000 consensus and – 190.000 in September. A clear improvement and a positive surprise for the markets. Chart 1. Non-farm Payrolls Monthly and Yearly Change The unemployment edged lower to 10.0% from 10.2% in December. Consensus was at 10.2%. Chart 2. Civilian Unemployment Rate The equity […]
Bank of America announced that it will repay all bail out funds. Bloomberg link: Bank of America to Repay Bailout, Easing CEO Search. The stock is trading up 4% despite massive dilution. No comment. Initial jobless claims were reported at 457.000 vs. 466.000 and 485.000 consensus. Again falling steady. Bloomberg story: U.S. Jobless Claims Unexpectedly […]
ADP unemployment for November just came out at -169.000 vs. -209.000 last month. Similar as with jobless claims, the job loses are coming down, but U.S. economy is still losing jobs. The story of the day in the U.S. yesterdays was GM CEO Fritz Henderson resignation. The resignation followed the Motor Vehicle Sales but apparently […]
Back to norm. Dubai World announced debt restructuring talks on (only) $26 billion debt, and the crowd has gone wild. WSJ story (with nice interactive extras): Dubai World in Talks on Debt Restructuring. The dollar is falling again, risky assets are rising and the saga continues. New addition to the situation is The Bank of […]
We have first numbers for the Black Friday shopping season start. The number of people shopping increased to 195 million from last’s year 172 million; they have spent $42. 2 billion vs. $42 billion last year which translates into $343 per shopper vs. $372 last year. Nothing new here, the shift to buy discounted merchandise […]
I lot of optimism on housing inventory backlog coming down to 7 months supply. A view from David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff + Associates: So, while this data may well show that the inventory backlog has come down to what seems to be a respectable 7 months’ supply, we also know from the U.S. Census […]
Looks like markets are dismissing the potential Dubai World default as a catalyst for a meaningful correction. Nice outline of the situation by Telegraph: Dubai’s financial crisis: a Q&A. If the markets dismiss this as a not strong enough catalyst it will show the strength of the belief of the global economy is recovering. I […]
First of all, happy Thanksgiving Day to my U.S. readers! Market moving news of the day is definitely Dubai World asking its creditors a “standstill” as it tries to negotiate a extension of maturities for its debt. Bloomberg story: Dubai Debt Delay Rattles Confidence in Gulf Borrowers. Oh, what a surprise, they invested billions in […]
The day was filled with economic data . No clear conviction from the markets. Let’s start. Durable goods orders surprised to the downside falling 0.6% vs. positive 0.5% consensus and 1% rise (all MoM) in September. Ex-transportation orders came at -1.3% vs. 0.8% (all MoM) in September. Personal income and outlays data, on the other […]
U.S. GDP growth has got revised to 2.8% from previous estimate of 3.5%. Although the previous number (conspicuously high) helped to propel the market to new highs, revision doesn’t seem to raise any worries as U.S. equity futures are pointing on a higher opening. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 10 edged higher 0.4% in September while &P/Case-Shiller Composite […]
Existing Home Sales came at level of 6.2 million vs. 5.7 million consensus and 5.6 million level the month before. Positive figure courtesy of late extension of first time home buyer tax credit (closing required by November) and record low mortgage rates. Chart 1. Existing Home Sales Looking back to the last’s week housing data […]
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: Analog Devices (ADI), Atwood Oceanics (ATW), Brocade Communications Systems (BRCD), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Nuance Communications (NUAN), Tech Data Corporation (TECD), Tyson Foods (TSN), Valspar (VAL) Tuesday: American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), Barnes & Noble (BKS), Blue Coat Systems (BCSI), H.J. Heinz Company (HNZ), Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL), J. Crew Group, Inc.(JCG), […]
Belisarius is overwhelmed with the work in his new company + he has traveled to Vienna yesterday, so he’s a little bit sidelined concerning the market action. I will post only a few interesting articles in last couple days. Trichet Says ECB Will Withdraw Liquidity Gradually, Bloomberg Fed Makes Monitoring Bank Capital Foremost Concern, Bloomberg […]
Ben Bernanke speech yesterday has win over the markets and the positive vibes were hitting the markets even today. Nothing special in the speech, both bulls and bears had their moments, but as bulls are currently in the lead the print was positive in all. Interesting, Mr. Bernanke admitted influencing stock markets: …Partly as the […]
Could well be. Today’s extension of the rally was on the back of retail sales figures. Retail sales rose 1.4% in October vs. 0.9% consensus and 1.5% decrease in September. Retail sales ex. autos rose 0.2% vs. 0.4% consensus and 0.5% growth in September. Obviously the low base in September reading (cash-for-clunkers ended in August) […]