U.S. Natural Gas Weekly – October 21, 2011
Total deterioration in fundamentals.
Global Macro Perspectives
Total deterioration in fundamentals.
Very strong inventory data is not translating into price strength.
Baltic dry index rose 7.1% last week; Capesize Index was up 11.5%; Panamax Index rose 8.9%; Supramax Index was up 4.0%; Handysize Index rose 6.2%.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 6.3%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell -0.4%.
China Consumer Price Index was up 6.1% in September, vs. 6.1% consensus and 6.2% August reading. Food inflation remained unchanged at 13.4%.
China Producer Price Index was fell to 6.5% from 7.3% in August. Consensus was at 6.9%.
The macro data will be the main factor driving the price of oil. The demand data was strong in the recent weeks, but came tepid in the last reading. The price has moved fast form deeply oversold into overbought, so the risks are to the downside.
Working gas in storage rose 112 Bcf from previous week. Consensus was at 102 Bcf.
Storage level is 69 Bcf lower than same time year ago and has moved above 5-year average.
China trade balance was reported at USD 14.5 billion vs. USD 17.8 billion in August and USD 16.3 billion consensus. Export and import growth were running at 17.1 and 20.9 percent vs. 24.5 and 30.2 percent y-o-y in June.
Baltic dry index rose 5.3% last week; Capesize Index was up 2.6%; Panamax Index rose 10.8%; Supramax Index was up 2.3%; Handysize Index rose 4.6%.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 11.5%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 2.2%.
Baltic dry index fell 1.5% last week; Capesize Index was down 5.2%; Panamax Index rose 4.5%; Supramax Index was up 0.9%; Handysize Index rose 6.6%.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 0.6%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 4.9%.
Baltic dry index rose 8.8% last week; Capesize Index was up 17.1%; Panamax Index fell 5.4%; Supramax Index was up 2.0%; Handysize Index rose 1.3%.
Iron ore inventory close to all time high, price unchanged; Steel inventory and price mostly unchanged; Coal inventory down, price stable.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 1.6%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 3.7%.
Baltic dry index fell 3.3% last week; Capesize Index was down 8.0%; Panamax Index rose 3.0%; Supramax Index was up 2.7%; Handysize Index fell 1.2%.