Global Macro Perspectives
Good that I closed the UNG position, I have saved myself from a lot of profits. U.S. Natural Gas Weekly – 03 December 2009. Like with JPY the entry point was a absolute high/low, but I earned almost nothing. P….. It’s a part of my trading strategy not to loose money, but it’s hard to […]
Natural gas in storage rose 2 billion cubic feet in the latest week. No draw I speculated about in the UNG post. Closed the UNG postition at small loss. Chart 1. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5-year Range
I eagerly started my strategy series and invested opposite the same day. So much on strategy and trading having common points. The United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) has hit new lows yesterday and I couldn’t resist taking a position. I bought ATM April Calls. Had to close FXY position (with a small profit) to […]
Crude oil stocks increased 2.1 million barrels; Gasoline stocks rose 4 million barrels; Distillate stocks fell 1.2 million barrels; Other oils flat; Total crude oil and petroleum products ending stocks up 5.9 million barrels. Refinery utilization rate again below 80%: at 70.66%. Last weeks tick up in utilization caused gasoline stocks rising. Total crude oil […]
Crude oil stocks were 1 million barrels higher than the week before. Gasoline stocks also 1 million barrels higher. Total distillates 0.5 million barrels lower. Other oils stock ended 1.6 million barrels higher. U.S. net imports reached 9.8 million barrels but the rebound in imports coincided with stock increase. Refinery utilization edged higher to 80.25%. […]
Crude oil stocks rose 0.9 million barrels. Gasoline stocks fell 1.8 million barrels. Distillate stocks fell 0.3 million barrels. Other oil stocks edged higher 2.8 million barrels. Total stocks down 4.2 million barrels. Refinery utilization rate has hit the new low of 79.44% vs. 79.93% the week before. Refinery inputs fell to 14 million barrels, […]
A short look to the yesterdays jobless claims which came out at 502k vs. 512k consensus and 512k the week before. Again a edge down, but still high. Asia ended mixed, small moves in different directions, Europe is trading flat at the moment. German Q3 GDP growth came at 0.7% vs. 0.8% consensus and o.4% […]
Crude oil stocks edged higher 1.8 million barrels; gasoline stocks up 0.8 million barrels; other oils down 4 million barrels; total stocks up 0.9 million barrels. Refinery utilization rate at 79.9% down from 80.6% last week; inputs into refineries hitting new low. Net imports up 0.4 million barrels, at lowest levels in this decade. To […]
Belisarius cough an interview with the K+S CEO Norbert Steiner on CNBC this morning and got interested in potash producers on the Mr. Steiner words that he expects 50% increase in demand measured by volume. The K+S is the seventh largest potash producer in the world (PotashCorp data) . Earnings today came out below consensus, […]
Belisarius is annoyed with united horn blowing on dollar going further down and gold going further up. So annoyed it is on the brinks of placing a short gold and long dollar trade. I’ll cool down and think on that again. Such unified consensus always leads to opposite outcome. One of the reasons is (for […]
I will today start with U.S. petroleum weekly which I will prepare every week based on the the new EIA data.
Most widely followed category – crude oil stocks came yesterday at -4 million barrels vs. consensus of 0.8 million barrels increase. A surprising figure on upon first impression, one warranting crude oil price increase, but if we review the the data in detail we will find that the fundamentals of petroleum supply and demand have not changed and the oil price rise is not supported by supply and demand fundamentals.
…at least for one trading session. Belisarius was occupied with his new firm in last few days so his blog suffered a little; now he’s back fully operational. Back to the theme; yesterday someone took a large position in gold and surprisingly moved the precious metal up on a positive dollar day. Media and blogosphere are full of various theories and reasons for the action. From India’s central bank buying MMF gold (Bloomberg story: IMF Sells Gold to India, First Sale in Nine Years) to “informed” buyer taking the position ahead of today FED interest rate decision/statement and rumors of big financial institution in trouble.
Excess gas coming to the spot markets due to light demand and curbs imposed by pipeline industry continue to cause wild swings in the spot markets. If we look at the futures markets those swings are not so strong probably due to size of futures markets in comparison to physical markets.
Natural Gas in the worst performing commodity this year. It has come down 66.2% this year and 77.6% from the top. Reduced industrial demand combined with absence of hot weather which has reduced electricity demand and consequently natural gas demand has weighted heavily on the natural gas price.