Global Macro Perspectives
I’ve been quite busy on my day job in last weeks, so now when I finally have some spare time I will follow-up China macro data since the start of the year.
To sum up, Chinese authorities have started to loosen monetary policy after slowdown in manufacturing and slowdown of imports (especially imports of goods which are consumed in China).
Baltic dry index fell 1.8% last week; Capesize Index was down 3.4%; Panamax Index rose 3.6%; Supramax Index was down 3.0%; Handysize Index fell 2.3%.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 3.0%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 12.1%.
Working gas in storage fell 102 Bcf from previous week. Consensus was at -92 Bcf.
Storage level is 177 Bcf higher than same time year ago and above 5-year average.
The rumors are that Saudis had to unload record amounts of physical crude to the markets (from their hedges) because of lack of able counter parties to roll the positions due to shortage of credit.
Number of crude oil drilling rigs in the U.S. rose for 28 in the last month; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 57.
Baltic dry index rose 3.0% last week; Capesize Index was up 8.4%; Panamax Index rose 0.7%; Supramax Index was down 7.9%; Handysize Index fell 3.4%.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 8.1%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 2.1%.
Order-book is shrinking fast with high delivery count and abundant cancellations looming. We are probably looking at couple catastrophic years for the industry ahead.
China Consumer Price Index was up 4.2% in November, vs. 4.5% consensus and 5.5% October reading. Food inflation eased from 11.9% to 8.8%..
China Producer Price Index fell to 2.7% from 5.0% in October. Consensus was at 3.4%.
Massive oversupply.
Crude oil market looks well balanced. Future economic conditions and consequent commodity demand are key here.
U.S. railroads originated 265,305 carloads, down 12.6% compared with the same week in 2010 and down 12.3% in relation to 5-year average. Week over week change was -12.1% . This was all due to Thanksgiving Day seasonality.
Baltic dry index rose 3.3% last week; Capesize Index was up 11.8%; Panamax Index fell 5.2%; Supramax Index was down 3.3%; Handysize Index fell 2.5%.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 0.8%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 3.0%.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 0.6%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 3.4%.