Global Macro Perspectives
Working gas in storage fell 164 Bcf from previous week. The consensus was at 165 Bcf.
Demand seems to be not sufficient to clear the excess inventory; looks like another lost winter for natural gas price ahead.
Crude oil stocks fell 9.9 million barrels; Gasoline stocks were up 0.8 million barrels; Distillate stocks rose 1.1 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks fell 1.9 million barrels; Other oils stocks decreased 3.8 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 15.6 million barrels lower for the week.
Refinery utilization rose 0.5% to 88.0%.
Implied crude oil demand fell 0.5 million barrels.
Crude oil and petroleum product net imports fell 1.8 million barrels to 7.8 million barrels. Lowest level in more than 10 years.
Impressive and record stockpile draw; No prof of increased demand; Looks like oil traders move crude oil around the globe.
Number of crude oil drilling rigs fell for 21; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 13.
On world scale number of drilling rigs rose for 68 rigs in December. Bulk of the gains coming from North America.
Baltic dry index fell 3.4% last week; Capesize Index was down 9.7%; Panamax Index fell 1.1%; Supramax Index rose 4.8%; Handysize Index was up 1.7%.
Iron stockpiles ticked up a bit; Steel inventory falling.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 6.7%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 1.4%.
Oil price action and sentiment spilling over to tanker market. No change in supply/demand fundamentals; abundance of available ships.
U.S. railroads originated 303,507 carloads, up 19.4% compared with the same week in 2009 and down 1.8% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was +19.4%.
Working gas in storage fell 89 Bcf from previous week. The consensus was at 80 Bcf.
I expect further increases in storage draws in following weeks.
rude oil stocks fell 3.8 million barrels; Gasoline stocks were up 3.8 million barrels; Distillate stocks rose 2.2 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks fell 2.3 million barrels; Other oils stocks decreased 4.5 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks fell 5.3 million barrels for the week.
Refinery utilization rose 4.9% to 87.5%.
Implied crude oil demand rose 1.3 million barrels.
Crude oil and petroleum product net imports rose 1.1 million barrels to 9.6 million barrels.
Kind of mixed report, large temperature related draws, on the other hand large stockpiling of gasoline and distillates. Imports increased and refinery utilization increased, so the risk is on the side of further stock increases.
Most important we had large moves in the futures curve; the curve flattened and prices in the mid of the two year curve rose higher than the prices on the end of the curve. This could be big thing and a potential prelude to the curve move into backwardation.
Baltic dry index fell 0.1% last week; Capesize Index was down 7.7%; Panamax Index rose 2.2%; Supramax Index rose 7.2%; Handysize Index was up 3.6%.
Stockpiles of iron ore and steel are falling, so we have no prof of falling demand in China (jet). I still expect Chinese buyers returning to the market and propping rates.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 14.2%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 8.9%.
I would speculate that China resumed its imports pace and propped rates.
U.S. railroads originated 254,121 carloads, up 3.2% compared with the same week in 2009 and down 14.3% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was +14.2%.
Thanksgiving week contributing to slower traffic.
Working gas in storage fell 23 Bcf from previous week. Consensus was at -29 Bcf.
To repeat: I expect large draws in following weeks.
Crude oil stocks rose 1.0 million barrels; Gasoline stocks were up 0.6 million barrels; Distillate stocks were down 0.2 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks fell 1.1 million barrels; Other oils stocks decreased 3.5 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were unchanged for the week.
Refinery utilization fell 2.9% to 82.6%.
Implied crude oil demand fell 0.5 million barrels.
Crude oil and petroleum product net imports fell 0.9 million barrels to 8.5 million barrels.
No other comment than that demand is week, stocks are high since the start of last recession and this is not changing or improving.
Official China PMI rose from 54.7 to 55.3; The HSBC/Markit PMI rose from 54.8 to 55.3. Reading above 50 means expansion.
Large gap between PMI’s and industrial production growth.
It look like it will bottom last week, but it keeps on coming down…