Global Macro Perspectives
Baltic dry index fell 8.3% last week; Capesize Index was down 5.0%; Panamax Index rose 0.8%; Supramax Index decreased 9.8%; Handysize Index fell 10.9%.
Stockpile data was not reported last week because Chinese holidays. Iron ore price fell 4%.
We could see some improvement after the lunar new year; Keeping close watch on Egypt developments.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 1.5%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 1.7%.
Again: too many available ships for the cargoes offered. We could see some positive freight rate developments if Egypt unrests affect Suez canal normal operation.
U.S. railroads originated 291,147 carloads, up 4.6% compared with the same week in 2010 and down 0.8% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was +2.9%.
Working gas in storage fell 189 Bcf from previous week. The consensus was at 187 Bcf.
Storage level is 53 Bcf lower than same time year ago.
Crude oil stocks rising, markets well supplied, demand weak. The price of oil, nevertheless, is on the rise.
Baltic dry index fell 17.0% last week; Capesize Index was down 12.1%; Panamax Index fell 19.0%; Supramax Index decreased 15.3%; Handysize Index fell 7.1%.
Iron ore stockpiles in Chinese ports at all-time high, iron ore demand will be weaker because of lunar new year (February 3rd). All this looks quite negative for dry bulk rates.
Dry bulk companies news flow very negative with Korea line receivership and Excel maritime postponing $250 million debt offering.
We could see some improvement after the lunar new year; Keeping close watch on Egypt developments.
U.S. railroads originated 282,837 carloads, up 2.0% compared with the same week in 2010 and down 3.2% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was -0.1%.
Working gas in storage fell 174 Bcf from previous week. The consensus was at 170 Bcf.
Storage level is 21 Bcf higher than same time year ago.
Crude oil stocks rose 4.8 million barrels; Gasoline stocks increased 2.4 million barrels; Distillate stocks fell 0.1 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks were down 3.3 million barrels; Other oils stocks decreased 2.1 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 2.4 million barrels higher for the week.
Refinery utilization fell 1.2% to 81.8%.
Implied crude oil demand rose 0.2 million barrels.
Crude oil and petroleum product net imports rose 0.2 million barrels to 9.7 million barrels.
Crude oil stocks rising, markets well supplied, demand weak.
Recent weeks are marked by record WTI vs. Brent crude price spread which is at record high of 11.2 USD per barrel. My best guess is that this is caused by three major factors: oversupplied U.S. market, smaller negative roll yield in Brent (or even positive roll on some contracts), coming CFTC futures position limits.
What this means for the crude oil price? I would say WTI is better proxy for oil price than Brent.
Baltic dry index fell 4.8% last week; Capesize Index was down 2.4%; Panamax Index fell 14.2%; Supramax Index rose 2.4%; Handysize Index was up 1.6%.
Iron ore stockpiles in Chinese ports at all-time high, iron ore demand will be weaker because of lunar new year (February 3rd). All this looks quite negative for dry bulk rates.
Number of crude oil drilling rigs rose for 9; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 4.
U.S. railroads originated 282,987 carloads, up 7.2% compared with the same week in 2010 and down 4.8% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was -0.7%.
Crude oil stocks rose 2.6 million barrels; Gasoline stocks increased 4.4 million barrels; Distillate stocks were up 1.1 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks were down 5.4 million barrels; Other oils stocks decreased 2.4 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 2.4 million barrels higher for the week.
Refinery utilization fell 3.4% to 83.0%.
Implied crude oil demand fell 0.9 million barrels.
Crude oil and petroleum product net imports rose 0.2 million barrels to 9.5 million barrels.
Crude oil stocks rising, markets well supplied, demand weak.
Working gas in storage fell 243 Bcf from previous week. The consensus was at 233 Bcf.
Storage level 109 Bcf higher than same time year ago.
Baltic dry index fell 5.3% last week; Capesize Index was down 14.5%; Panamax Index fell 0.7%; Supramax Index rose 3.9%; Handysize Index fell 0.6%.
Iron ore stockpiles have risen a bit despite Queensland floods, that’s kind of worrying because despite Queensland supply disruptions there is no apparent physical lack of iron ore. On the other hand it seems Baltic dry index is forming a bottom at 1.500 level.