Rig Count Weekly – March 14, 2011
Number of crude oil drilling rigs rose for 26; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 17.
On world scale number of oil & gas drilling rigs rose for 100 in February.
Archive for the ‘Commodities’ Category
U.S. Freight Carloads Weekly – March 11, 2011
U.S. railroads originated 300,953 carloads, up 5.5% compared with the same week in 2010 and down 0.7% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was 1.6%.
U.S. Natural Gas Weekly – March 11, 2011
Working gas in storage fell 71 Bcf from previous week. The consensus was at 78 Bcf.
Storage level is 48 Bcf higher than same time year ago.
U.S. Petroleum Weekly – March 10, 2011
Libya is out of the markets for some time. If demand stays at recent levels crude oil price will go up.
In U.S.: Markets are well supplied, demand historically speaking weak, refining capacity utilization low and crude oil imports. WTI – Brent pricing disparity lower, but still very high.
Refining industry discipline, stockpiling ahead of expected rise in prices and seasonal demand patterns are (very slowly) bringing down stockpiles.
China Reports Unexpected Trade Deficit
China trade balance was reported at USD -7.3 billion vs. USD 6.45 billion in January and USD 4.9 billion consensus. Export and import growth were running at 2.4 and 19.4 percent vs. 37.7% and 51.0% y-o-y in January.
Large unexpected surprise, but something I hinted earlier in my dry bulk weeklies. Concerning deficit itself it’s probably result of seasonal effects (Lunar New Year) and POBC tightening measures. I expect some normalization in March, but nevertheless the market reaction could be violent in coming days because this is a game-changer, especially in relation to yuan appreciation calls.
POBC tightening to contain inflation will probably have to be relaxed or even reversed because Chinese government faces two alternatives: 1. higher growth & higher inflation vs. 2. lower growth & lower inflation. The outcome of this is pretty clear.
Dry Bulk Weekly – March 7, 2011
Baltic dry index rose 8.1% last week; Capesize Index was up 8.5%; Panamax Index rose 9.4%; Supramax Index increased 5.9%; Handysize Index was up 2.3%.
Iron ore and steel prices fell on high inventory (iron ore inventory near record high; steel inventory record high). Thermal coal inventory data not released.
Rig Count Weekly – March 6, 2011
Number of crude oil drilling rigs rose for 18; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 7.
U.S. Freight Carloads Weekly – March 4, 2011
U.S. railroads originated 296,252 carloads, up 2.1% compared with the same week in 2010 and down 3.1% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was -0.2%.
U.S. Petroleum Weekly – March 3, 2011
To repeat: If Libya doesn’t restart producing with full capacity soon the price of oil will go up.
In U.S.: Markets are well supplied, demand historically speaking weak, refiners cutting refining capacity and crude oil imports. WTI – Brent pricing disparity still very high.
Dry Bulk Weekly – February 28, 2011
Baltic dry index fell 10.4% last week; Capesize Index was down 8.8%; Panamax Index fell 9.6%; Supramax Index rose 9.3%; Handysize Index was up 2.7%.
Iron ore and steel inventory at new all time high. Thermal coal inventory rising fast.
This could be a canary in a coal mine for Chinese economy…
Rig Count Weekly – February 28, 2011
Number of crude oil drilling rigs fell for 15; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 1.
Tanker Weekly – February 26, 2011
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 11.8%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index was up 11.7%.
As with everything happening this week this was also caused by Libya unrest/civil war. Libya crude oil was primarily exported to nearby markets, so drop in Libya production will have to be substituted from producing countries which are more distant. This caused a rise in shipping rates which will probably continue.
U.S. Freight Carloads Weekly – February 25, 2011
U.S. railroads originated 296,980 carloads, up 8.4% compared with the same week in 2010 and down 0.7% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was also 8.4%.
U.S. Petroleum Weekly – February 25, 2011
I already coved Libya importance for crude oil price: Importance Of Libya For World Oil Production.
Few days later, my view is that if Libya doesn’t restart producing with full capacity soon the price of oil will go up.
In U.S.: Markets are well supplied, demand historically speaking weak, refiners cutting refining capacity and crude oil imports. WTI – Brent pricing disparity still very high.
U.S. Natural Gas Weekly – February 25, 2011
Working gas in storage fell 81 Bcf from previous week. The consensus was at 83 Bcf.
Storage level is 23 Bcf lower than same time year ago.
Heating season is nearing its end, the market is well supplied, so no fundamental reasons for natural gas price recovery.
This is it for this winter…