Global Macro Perspectives
*** The Tell: Top 10 greetings on Hu Jintao’s voice mail – Must read! ***
*** Gavyn Davies: EMU summit leaves €1,000 billion to be raised ***
*** FT Alphaville: Greek lessons from John Major, Latvia and Ireland ***
*** FT Alphaville: Who can (or cannot) cut it ***
*** Macro Man: RIP DM Sovereign CDS (2006-2011) ***
*** The Big Picture: Is Amazon the Latest Victim of Apple? ***
*** The Economist: Hard times ***
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 402.000 vs. 401.000 consensus and last week revised (up 1.000) reading of 404.000.
U.S. GDP growth for Q3 was reported at 2.5%; consensus was at 2.5%. Q2 2011 reading was at 1.3%.
Strong price action in the front end of the curve pushed the WTI into backwardation.
So, the basis of the agreement is a 50% cut in the face value of Greek bonds held by private creditors. The agreement will reduce Greek debt level to 120% of GDP by 2020.
Durable goods new orders fell 0.8% in September vs. -1.0% consensus and 0.1% fall in August.
*** The Big Picture: Is the Worst of the Bear Market Behind Us? ***
*** FT BeyondBRICs: No help soon for China’s developers ***
*** FT BeyondBRICs: China: Just how fine a tuning? ***
*** FT Alphaville: Cheap China ***
*** Macro Man: The Euro Summit Schedule (maybe). ***
Seasonly adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 10 city fell 0.2% in August; On year level 10 city index is down 3.6%.
*** The Big Picture: A Tale of 2 Seasonal Investors ***
*** The Big Picture: Deja Vu? Acuthan of ECRI on 4/2/08 when stocks were shooting up after recession call ***
*** The Big Picture: Felix Zulauf: The Die is Cast ***
*** The Big Picture: The Tragedy of Steve Jobs ***
*** FT Alphaville: China GDP forecasts and net exports ***
*** FT Alphaville: WTI is no longer a burden to passive investors ***
*** FT Alphaville: Bullish bears and the worst-case scenario ***
*** FT BeyondBRICs: Roubini: Goodbye China, hello Indonesia ***
Huge move in WTI futures curve in the last two days. In theory this should be bullish.
*** FT Alphaville: A tale of two PMIs ***
*** FT Alphaville: US in possible downgrade encore shock ***
*** Gavyn Davies: Great Recession may cost US economy $5,900 billions ***
*** The Big Picture: Repairing Infrastructure Can Help Economy ***
*** The Big Picture: Dropbox startup lessons learned 2011 ***
*** The New York Times: It’s All Connected: A Spectator’s Guide to the Euro Crisis ***
Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September was reported at -0.22 vs. revised August reading of -0.59. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 3-month moving average is at -0.21.
Baltic dry index fell 0.1% last week; Capesize Index was down 0.6%; Panamax Index fell 2.8%; Supramax Index was up 0.8%; Handysize Index rose 0.5%.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 2.8%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell -2.8%.
HSBC/Markit PMI rose from 49.4 to 51.1.