Global Macro Perspectives
Crude oil and distillates stocks recorded small declines. Supply/demand balance is tight.
Release of strategic reserve will have, in my view, relatively small effect on supply/demand balance, so the price weakness is probably short-term.
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Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 418.000 vs. 420.000 consensus and last week revised (up 4.000) reading of 432.000.
ADP Employment rose 157,000 in June vs. revised (down 2,000) gain of 36,000 in May.
Large upside surprise, I wonder whether it will be confirmed by non-farm payrolls.
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U.S. railroads originated 284,562 carloads, down 0.1% compared with the same week in 2010 and down 4.5% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was -3.3%.
Baltic dry index fell 0.1% last week; Capesize Index was up 3.6%; Panamax Index fell 9.9%; Supramax Index was down 1.2%; Handysize Index fell 1.2%.
Large increase in coal stockpiles, no major changes in other categories.
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Official (China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing and National Bureau of Statistics) China PMI fell form 52.0 to 50.9. Consensus was at 51.5.