Tanker Weekly – May 9, 2011
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 4.0%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 2.9%.
Oversupply of vessels is so high that at even increased supply of cargoes rates are sinking.
Archive for May, 2011
Rig Count Monthly – May 9, 2011
Number of crude oil drilling rigs in the U.S. rose for 48 in April ; Number of natural gas drilling rigs rose for 13.
On world scale number of oil & gas drilling rigs fell for 341 in April. This is because of a seasonal fall of drilling activity in Canada.
April Nonfarm Payrolls Rose 244.000; Unemployment Rate At 9.0%
Nonfarm payrolls rose 244.000 in April; Consensus was at 185.000; March reading was an increase of 216.000 (revised +5.000). The unemployment was reported at 9.0% vs. prior reading of 8.8% and consensus of 8.8%.
Private payrolls were up 268.000 vs. 200.000 consensus and 231.000 reading in March (revised +1.000).
Nice positive beat despite all kind of wishful thinking flooding the sentiment…
Crude Oil Slide Continues…
Down more than 4%….
On Commodity Blow-Up
I am shocked on the scale of commodity fall out today.
The markets felt like something’s up in the last couple day’s but this look’s absolutely overdone.
Even more weird is that stocks held up nicely.
It almost looks like something blew up (hedge fund, trading desk, somebody’s cross-asset hedges) and needed to wind down fast.
We will know in the coming days if something happened or this is self-fueled panic and margin induced sell-off.
I have put some light longs in the last hours of trading. Yeah…maybe not smart, but we are talking here about 4+ standard deviations moves (1 in 15,787 event, so expected to occur once in 43 years) so I felt tempted. Waiting for the commodity plunge protection team. Will close fast if this continues tomorrow.
We will see what happens.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims At 474.000; Up 43.000
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 474.000 vs. 410.000 consensus and last week revised (up 2.000) reading of 431.000.
U.S. Petroleum Weekly – May 5, 2011
Again the price of oil is not determined by the fundamentals but the last couple day’s new hit scare – deflation.
Daily Reading – Wednesday, May 4, 2011
*** The Big Picture: Things To Be Concerned About Regarding This Market ***
*** FT Alphaville: Cash is king ***
*** FT Alphaville: Glencore IPO term sheet ***
*** FT BeyondBRICs: Renren IPO: over the top? ***
*** self-evident: An intriguing potential problem with CDS ***
MBA Mortgage Applications Up 4.0%
MBA mortgage applications rose 4.0%; Prior reading was a fall of 5.6%; On year level MBA Basic Index is down 17.5%.
Challenger Job-Cuts For April At 36,490
Challenger’s count of layoff announcements was reported at 36,490 in April vs. 41,528 in March.
ADP Employment Rose 179,000 In April
ADP Employment rose 179,000 in April vs. revised (up 6,000) gain of 207,000 in March.
Nonfarm payrolls on Friday could be close to the 185,000 consensus.
Daily Reading – Tuesday, May 3, 2011
*** Gavyn Davies: Anglo Saxon GDP not as weak as it appears ***
*** The Big Picture: When Will S&P500 Regain All Its 2007-09 Losses? ***
*** FT Alphaville: Volatile silver ***
*** JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN: Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – Fool Me Once Shame On You… ***
*** JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN: CME Announces Third Margin Increase For Silver in a Week – Karma? Ain’t It a Bitch. ***
*** BeyondBRICs: Brazil’s misleading trade surplus ***
Monthly Strategy – May 2011
Mostly unchanged from April…
U.S. Construction Spending Rose 1.4% In March
U.S. construction spending rose 1.4% in March vs. 0.4% consensus and 2.6% fall (revised from 1.4% fall) in February. On year level we are at -6.7%.
April ISM Manufacturing Index At 60.4
ISM Manufacturing Index was reported at 60.4 vs. prior reading of 61.2 and consensus of 59.5.
Smaller slowdown than expected, positive surprise.