Global Macro Perspectives
U.S. housing starts in December rose 14.6% to 596.000 vs. revised (9.000 lower) 520.000 December reading. The consensus was at 529.000. On year level U.S. housing starts are down 2.6%.
Did not have time to review this yesterday… Most important – economic projections were raised up. Theme remains unchanged: inflate.
U.S. industrial production fell 0.1% in January. The consensus was at 0.5%, December revised (down 0.4%) reading was at 0.8%. On year level industrial production is up 5.1%.
U.S. producer price index rose 0.8% in January vs. 0.8% consensus. December reading was at 0.9% (revised from 1.1%). On year level PPI is up 3.4%
MBA mortgage applications fell 9.5%; Prior reading was a decrease of 5.5%; On year level MBA Basic Index is down 30.2%.
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U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in January. The consensus was at +0.5%, December reading was at +0.3% (revised from +0.5%). On year level retail sales are up 7.4%.
Most notable gainers: gasoline stations +1.4%, food & beverage stores +1.3% m-o-m; non-store retailers +1.2%; Most notable losers: building material & garden equipment -2.9%; sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores -1.3%.
Empire State Manufacturing General Business Conditions Index for February came out at 15.4 vs. 15.0 consensus and prior reading of 11.9.
Looks like industrial production will continue expanding.
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The most broad measure of money supply – M2 rose 17.2% y-o-y in January vs. 19.0% consensus and 19.7% rise in December.
Chinese banks issued CNY 1,040.0 billion of new loans in January vs. CNY 480.7 billion in December and consensus of CNY 1,200.0 billion. The government has not provided a target for this year, so we will have to wait for a couple months to gain an insight how high it could be this year.
China Consumer Price Index was up 4.6% in January, vs. 5.4% consensus and 4.6% December reading . Lower food price inflation has pushed the number lower. The CPI basket was changed (less food in it, more housing), but as far I can tell this didn’t change the reading much.
This is quite positive, I expect the monetary tightening will continue, but without the need for aggressive actions.
China Producer Price Index was up 6.6% vs. 6.2% consensus and 5.9% December reading.
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Weekly economic calendar.
Baltic dry index rose 12.9% last week; Capesize Index was up 13.5%; Panamax Index rose 20.2%; Supramax Index increased 3.9%; Handysize Index rose 0.9%.
Shipping rates rose after the lunar new year as Chinese buyers returned to the markets
Stockpiles of iron ore, steel and coke are rising in-sync with their respected prices. Buyers probably stockpiling in fear of even higher prices.
I would expect further gains in rates; Still keeping close watch on Egypt developments.
Number of crude oil drilling rigs fell for 13; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 5.
On world scale number of oil & gas drilling rigs fell for 6 in January.