Global Macro Perspectives
FT BeyondBRICs on Google and Baidu China popularity contest *** FT Alphaville on todays Spanish debt auction *** FT Alphaville on ECB technical insolvency *** FT Alphaville on Hungary legislative adventures *** Self Evident on municipal bond bankruptcies and defaults ***
*** Slope Of Hope on equity market prospects *** FT Alphaville reviews BIS data on European banks peripheral exposure *** FT Alphaville on BIS European banks peripheral exposure again *** FT Alphaville on ECB European peripheral bond buying *** FT Alphaville on Ireland GDP growth *** FT BeyondBRICs on China – Africa trade flows *** Calculated Risk on U.S. negative equity properties ***
Number of crude oil drilling rigs fell for 21; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 13.
On world scale number of drilling rigs rose for 68 rigs in December. Bulk of the gains coming from North America.
*** The New York Times on derivatives trading monopoly *** The Economist pools forecasters *** The Economist on nuclear power reactors *** FT Alphaville on EFSF *** FT Alphaville on POBC not raising interest rates *** CLSA via. Zero Hedge on China 2011 outlook *** CLSA via. Zero Hedge on Chinese inflation *** Can Turtles Fly? on John Maynard Keynes as an investor *** The Big Picture on credit collapse *** The Big Picture on FDIC bank failures *** The Big Picture on other people opinions *** The Big Picture on Irish bankers *** FT BeyondBRICs weekly calendar ***
Baltic dry index fell 3.4% last week; Capesize Index was down 9.7%; Panamax Index fell 1.1%; Supramax Index rose 4.8%; Handysize Index was up 1.7%.
Iron stockpiles ticked up a bit; Steel inventory falling.
** China NDRC Property Price Index ** China Trade Balance; Export & Import Growth ** China Monetary Aggregates ** China New Loan Issuance ** Consumer & Producer Price Indexes ** China Retail Sales Growth ** China Fixed Assets Investment **
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 6.7%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 1.4%.
Oil price action and sentiment spilling over to tanker market. No change in supply/demand fundamentals; abundance of available ships.
U.S. railroads originated 303,507 carloads, up 19.4% compared with the same week in 2009 and down 1.8% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was +19.4%.
Weekly economic calendar.
Usual service continues on Monday.
*** The Big Picture on overbought market *** The Big Picture on Google Maps Foreclosure Features *** Calculated Risk on rising mortgage rates *** FT Alpahville on Italian banks’ subordinated debt *** FT Alpahville on U.S. treasuries sell-off *** Reuters on Orszag’s new job ***
Working gas in storage fell 89 Bcf from previous week. The consensus was at 80 Bcf.
I expect further increases in storage draws in following weeks.
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 421.000. The consensus was at 425.000, last week revised (up 2.000) reading was at 438.000.
Econbrowser on impact of rising crude oil prices * FT Alphaville on U.S. treasury bonds * The Big Picture on consumer deleveraging * Calculated Risk on office vacancy rates
rude oil stocks fell 3.8 million barrels; Gasoline stocks were up 3.8 million barrels; Distillate stocks rose 2.2 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks fell 2.3 million barrels; Other oils stocks decreased 4.5 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks fell 5.3 million barrels for the week.
Refinery utilization rose 4.9% to 87.5%.
Implied crude oil demand rose 1.3 million barrels.
Crude oil and petroleum product net imports rose 1.1 million barrels to 9.6 million barrels.
Kind of mixed report, large temperature related draws, on the other hand large stockpiling of gasoline and distillates. Imports increased and refinery utilization increased, so the risk is on the side of further stock increases.
Most important we had large moves in the futures curve; the curve flattened and prices in the mid of the two year curve rose higher than the prices on the end of the curve. This could be big thing and a potential prelude to the curve move into backwardation.