Global Macro Perspectives
(For October 2010) Housing Market Index for October was reported at 16 vs. 13 in September. Consensus was at 14. All components up, especially future component. What do you have if you don’t have hope….? Chart 1. NAHB / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index
(For September 2010) U.S. industrial production fell 0.2% in September. The consensus was at 0.2%, August reading at 0.2%. Chart 1. U.S. Industrial Production Capacity utilization fell to 74.7% in from revised 74.8% in August (revised from 74.7%) and consensus of 74.8%. Chart 2. Capacity Utilization Bigger miss than suggested by ISM manufacturing.
Baltic dry index rose 2.4% last week; Capesize Index was up 6.6%; Panamax Index fell 6.2%; Supramax Index was down 1.9%; Handysize Index was down 3.8%. Capesizes still leading on iron ore demand from China. Strange that other vessel classes and not following… Chart 1. Baltic Dry Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Dry Index Chart […]
Important U.S. economic data: Prior Consensus Monday, October 18 Treasury International Capital Industrial Production 0.2% 0.2% Capacity Utilization Rate 74.7% 74.8% Housing Market Index Tuesday, October 19 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales Housing Starts 598.000 580.000 Redbook Wednesday, October 20 MBA Purchase Applications EIA Petroleum Status Report Beige Book Thursday, October 21 Jobless Claims 462.000 455.000 Leading […]
In short you get exactly what the title says: history of interest rates. It’s probably the only such concise material on the subject. Like all the history books it’s not a lot of fun to read but a lot of useful information is in there, especially tables and charts with interest rate data. The reader is off […]
(For The Week Ending October 15, 2010) Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 4.0%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index was unchanged. Even though the strike in France keeps vessels employed (at anchor) – the market is still oversupplied. Rates are bellow operating costs. Chart 1. Baltic Tanker Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Tanker Indexes
(For The Week Ending October 9, 2010) U.S. railroads originated 297,029 carloads, up 8.6% compared with the same week in 2009, but down 7.2% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was -0.8%. Chart 1. Association of American Railroads U.S. Freight Carloads
(For The Week Ending October 8, 2010) Crude oil stocks fell 0.4 million barrels for the week ending October 8, 2010; Gasoline stocks fell 1.8 million barrels; Distillate stocks were down 0.3 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks rose 0.3 million barrels; Other oils stocks fell 2.1 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 4.5 […]
(For The Week Ending October 8, 2010) ECRI Weekly Leading Index for week ending October 8, 2010 was reported down 6.9%. Prior reading was at -7.0%.. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
(For October 2010) Empire State Manufacturing Survey for October came out at 15.7 vs. 6.0 consensus and 4.1 prior reading. Positive surprise. Chart 1. ISM manufacturing vs. Regional Manufacturing Surveys
(For October 2010) October University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment was reported at 67.9 vs. 68.9 consensus and 68.2 September reading. Contrary to the other data released today this one is on the weak side. Chart 1. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment vs. Conference Board Consumer Confidence
(For September 2010) U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in September . The consensus was at 0.4%, August reading (revised up 0.4%) was at +1.0%. On year level retail sales are up 7.3%. Declining only clothing & clothing accessories. Positive report. Chart 1. U.S. Retail Sales Autos taken out, the figure was an increase of 0.4% vs. consensus of 0.3% growth. Prior […]
(For September 2010) U.S. consumer price index rose 0.1% in September vs. 0.2% consensus and August reading of 0.3%. Chart 1. U.S. Consumer Price Index Consumer price index fell less food & energy came out unchanged. September reading was also at 0.0%. The consensus was at 0.1%. Chart 2. U.S. Consumer Price Index Core (Less Food & Energy) We […]
(For The Week Ending October 8, 2010) Working gas in storage rose 91 Bcf from previous week. Consensus was at 92 Bcf. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average Chart 3. Natural Gas Futures Curve
(For August 2010) U.S. trade balance for June was reported at $-46.3 billion vs. consensus of $-44.0 billion and July reading of $-42.6 billion. Chart 1. U.S. Trade Balance