Posts Tagged United States Oil Fund (USO)
Return To The Carry Trade
Posted by Belisarius in Markets on December 1, 2009
Back to norm. Dubai World announced debt restructuring talks on (only) $26 billion debt, and the crowd has gone wild. WSJ story (with nice interactive extras): Dubai World in Talks on Debt Restructuring. The dollar is falling again, risky assets are rising and the saga continues.
New addition to the situation is The Bank of Japan surprise meeting last night and a announcement of new 10 trillion yen ($115 billion) lending program to commercial banks. Bloomberg story: BOJ to Provide 10 Trillion Yen in Emergency Credit. The market has viewed the move as a prelude to moving to real quantitative easing. As Jen is a second carry trade currency of choice this send the currency down, and all risky assets up.
Short… Again…
Posted by Belisarius in Markets on October 28, 2009
I bought USO and SPY ATM January puts today. Feels like we have some weakness coming. Most of the better-than-expected results are out; economic data coming is sluggish (except maybe U.S. Q3 GDP reading tomorrow, but here I view the expectations high, so I’ll take the risk); and it feels extending stimulus (read: budget deficit widening) would be negatively viewed by the FX and fixed income markets so U.S. government would likely be cautious with the measures it is undertaking. So new stimulus fueled move is unlikely.
Btw. Goldman reduced its estimate for the Q3 GDP growth to 2.7% vs. 3% earlier.
Nervous
Posted by Belisarius in Markets on October 13, 2009
Markets are feeling nervous, I’m feeling nervous. VIX is at the lower bottom of the short term range, it looks it could stay in the range. Gold is hitting new highs today, it’s overbought a little, maybe some consolidation there needed if it is bound to stay at today’s levels.
Chart 1. Gold Futures
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