Posts Tagged Goldman Sachs

Goldman 2Q EPS 78C vs. $1.99 Estimates

Ouch…. It looks bad on first sight, but when we exclude non-recurring items (SEC settlement,  U.K. bank payroll tax) the figure is $2.75.

Press release.

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS) today reported net revenues of $8.84 billion and net earnings of $613 million for its second quarter ended June 30, 2010. Diluted earnings per common share were $0.78 compared with $4.93 for the second quarter of 2009 and $5.59 for the first quarter of 2010. Annualized return on average common shareholders’ equity (ROE) (2) was 7.9% for the second quarter of 2010 and 13.1% for the first half of 2010.

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Goldman Sachs Scandal Sending The Markets Down?

In case you live on a different planet, this is the collection of articles and blog posts on the biggest story this year: SEC/Goldman linkfest by FT Alphaville.

If you look at the media, they love it and they have incorporated all the bailout injustice into the story. Dylan Ratigan show:

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

What will be the market impact? I could be that we have a genuine downside catalyst here. I will certainly look for a short position with a close stop loss in the S&P 500.

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Questions, Questions…

I’m puzzled by the market action in recent days. It fells that something is wrong, but I major move down doesn’t seem probable. The news and blogosphere are full of stories on Mr. Bernanke and AIG/Goldman Sachs/Societe Generale unwinding. Both are neither interesting neither useful in investing. Who cares what happened more than year ago, it doesen’t affect the future in quantitative manner. FED Chairman? Even if Mr. Bernanke is replaced by someone else it would be extremely to change the path started by Helicopter Ben (maybe impossible). Only entertainment for the media here.

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Volcker Rule

After sleeping it off and giving a little tough on Barack Obama’s  proposal of new financial regulation I still think this is HUGE. Because it is so HUGE, I have some doubts how the final version would look like. Similar as with health care reform, a strong opposition backed by almost unlimited (lobbying) funds will arise.

If it turned to a law it will cripple “Bank Holding Company” earnings.  Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase and Co. could be especially hit losing maybe even a half of the earnings. Off course, their proprietary trading desks are worth a lot and they could be spun off, but they would lose both financing and information advantages.

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Short… Again…

I bought USO and SPY ATM January puts today. Feels like we have some weakness coming. Most of the better-than-expected results are out; economic data coming is sluggish (except maybe U.S. Q3 GDP reading tomorrow, but here I view the expectations high, so I’ll take the risk); and it feels extending stimulus (read: budget deficit widening) would be negatively viewed by the FX and fixed income markets so U.S. government would likely be cautious with the measures it is undertaking. So new stimulus fueled move is unlikely.

Btw. Goldman reduced its estimate for the Q3 GDP growth to 2.7% vs. 3% earlier.

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Just Buy

A wave of reckless optimism has taken over the financial world. We saw new highs in U.S. equities yesterday and European today. As I wrote before “better taken expected” has taken over the investor hart and souls. It doesn’t feel rational for me so I will pass on being long for the time being.

On the earnings announcement front yesterday we had good results (better then consensus, worse than market expected) from Goldman Sachs. In short Goldman has remained one of its kind in the proprietary trading and that will continue. Bloomberg story: Goldman Sachs’s Earnings Surge Falls Short of Record.

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No Inspiration

The market has come down slightly in last few days. Again, major theme was health of world banking sector.

Chart 1. S&P 500

S&P 500 02092009

Low volumes and strange trading with shares of bankrupt companies could evolve to be a sign that we are bound for something worse than a few percent minus. After FNM, FRE and AIG we had even price surge of Lehman Brothers Holdings (LEHMQ). The share tripled in last few days???

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