Global Macro Perspectives
Durable good orders rose 0.5% in February vs. 1% consensus and 3% rise in January. Transportation taken out the figure was 0.9% vs. -0.6% in January. Chart 1. U.S. Durable Goods Orders Chart 2. U.S. Durable Goods Orders Ex. Transportation
Equities In the macro arena we have leading indicators rolling over, and a stream of worse-than-expected data pieces on U.S. housing, U.S. employment, U.S. durable goods ordered and large move lower by consumer confidence. Seems that the markets do not appreciate the data. Things that move the markets are only FED policy on rates, dollar […]
We have clear roll over of leading indicators in recent weeks and a deterioration in housing, jobless claims, durable goods orders today and bad consumer confidence reading. Seems that the markets do not appreciate the data. Things that move the markets are only FED policy on rates, dollar strength and Greece debt problems. China credit […]
A negative surprise if we take airplanes out; Durable goods orders rose 3% vs. 1.5% consensus and 0.3% prior reading; Durable goods orders excluding transportation fell -0.6% vs. 0.9% growth in December. Chart 1. Durable Goods Orders Chart 2. Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation
Record Bund/Greek government bond spread is crucial market moving factor today. A lot of rumors on the issue. Bloomberg story: Papandreou Says Rumors Hurt Greece, Not Seeking Aid. As I wrote before I expected a meltdown before this weeks bond issue, but apparently they manged to sell the bonds, but the pain continues… Durable orders […]
The day was filled with economic data . No clear conviction from the markets. Let’s start. Durable goods orders surprised to the downside falling 0.6% vs. positive 0.5% consensus and 1% rise (all MoM) in September. Ex-transportation orders came at -1.3% vs. 0.8% (all MoM) in September. Personal income and outlays data, on the other […]
Same as the day before, yesterday we saw mostly “better than expected” data from the US. Most notably new home sales were up 9.6% in July. Durable goods orders came 4.9% higher in July vs. 3% consensus and -2.5% the month before. Better than expected orders were mostly result of US government “cash for clunkers” program from which, by the way, mostly benefited Japanese auto makers. Durable goods ex transportation came at 0.8% vs. 0.9% consensus and 2.5% the month before.