Posts Tagged Deflation
Monthly Strategy – February 2010
Posted by Belisarius in Monthly Strategy on February 1, 2010
Equities
We have seen a meaningful correction in equities in recent couple of weeks, we have a market that fails to react to presumably good news, we have low levels of cash in equity mutual funds and still high number of bulls; high beta stocks suffered massively; For me this is a setup for reversal, I expect further short term losses.
My mid-term view remains unchanged – this is just a bear market rally; U.S. and E.U. economies will experience same patterns in both economy and markets as Japan in ‘90ies.
Monthly Strategy – January 2010
Posted by Belisarius in Monthly Strategy on January 2, 2010
Equities
Equity performance was impressive in recent month, down to the last trading day of the year. Thursday trading showed that the investors are not so confident that the upside will continue, revealing, maybe a moment of truth. Everybody is long because of fear not to miss further gains, but scared of a potential slip.
The new regulation for real-estate developer land purchases in China; slowing credit growth and Rusal IPO which could capture excess cash which is fueling the rally and serve as a sort of a global wide correction catalyst.
Monthly Strategy – December 2009
Posted by Belisarius in Monthly Strategy on December 2, 2009
I am starting a monthly strategy overview to have my strategy in one place and a to test accuracy of my views. Written revisions and accommodations would also contribute to my investment discipline.
Equities
I have been surprised by the market strength as the market rejected the Dubai turmoil as a correction catalyst. This has substantially changed my views on the markets. The belief (in my view incorrect) that the economy will start recovering at average post recovery rates is strong. The Dubai spurred correction has only proved to be a buying opportunity. Because of that I wouldn’t exclude S&P 500 moving ahead of 1200 points. I would also expect short-term equity strength on both global and emerging markets level.
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