Posts Tagged David Rosenberg
ECRI Weekly Index Debate
Posted by Belisarius in Markets on June 23, 2010
The usefulness of ECRI weekly leading index is widely debated today. The debate was started by Bank of America Merrill Lynch biased report: ECRI: Not the “Holy Grail”.
David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff + Associates in todays Breakfast with Dave:
What is fascinating is how the ECRI, which was celebrated by Wall Street research houses a year ago, is being maligned today for acting as an impostor — not the indicator it is advertised to be because it gets re-jigged to fit the cycle.
Brilliant Commentary By David Rosenberg
Posted by Belisarius in Markets on March 29, 2010
Although I don’t agree with every piece of trading advice it can be derived from the piece; todays economic commentary by Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg is one of the most impressive research pieces I have ever read.
Link.
Targets
Posted by Belisarius in Markets on February 9, 2010
One of the most important piece of data being reported this week is Chinese money supply. When giving a little thought to the meter, it gives a negative impulse to the markets turned both ways. If the growth continues we have asset bubbles forming and inflation threat; If growth slows down we have a threat that China investment driven economic model collapses globally subdued demand for everything China imports. I will be interesting to see how the markets will react, in my view it could only be negative.
Interesting exercise David Rosenberg made yesterday in Gluskin Sheff economic commentary:
U.S. Housing Inventory
Posted by Belisarius in Markets, U.S. Housing on November 27, 2009
I lot of optimism on housing inventory backlog coming down to 7 months supply. A view from David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff + Associates:
So, while this data may well show that the inventory backlog has come down to what seems to be a respectable 7 months’ supply, we also know from the U.S. Census data that there are around 3½ million homeownership units that are currently being taken off the market for unstated reasons. (We reckon that this is a pretty good proxy for the ‘shadow’ foreclosed inventory at the banks). In other words, we very likely have the inventory backlog at closer to 14 months’ supply and this is why prices are still declining. At the margin, there are still many more sellers than there are buyers.
Another Leg Of The Rally?
Posted by Belisarius in Markets on November 16, 2009
Could well be. Today’s extension of the rally was on the back of retail sales figures. Retail sales rose 1.4% in October vs. 0.9% consensus and 1.5% decrease in September. Retail sales ex. autos rose 0.2% vs. 0.4% consensus and 0.5% growth in September. Obviously the low base in September reading (cash-for-clunkers ended in August) was the reason for positive reading. The “core” number came bellow consensus. I don’t see anything to cheer about here, but the markets seem to have a different view.
Empire State index came out at 23.51 vs. 29 consensus. Consumer confidence came at 66 vs. 71 consensus. A streak of worse than expected leading indicator readings continue.
Wells Fargo And Stuff
Posted by Belisarius in Markets on October 21, 2009
As I wrote before Wells Fargo earnings came better than expected. I gave gone through the material and I have to say the the way management presents the data gave me a sort of the confidence that they know their job, but when I reviewed the details the seen has only scared me. Presentation.
Valuations
Posted by Belisarius in Markets on October 9, 2009
Noting much on the news front today. Mr. Bernanke speech yesterday stirred up the markets sending U.S. dollar up, and treasuries down. The rhetoric is unchanged, the highlight is that the FED is ready to tighten the monetary policy when the economy starts to recover. Bloomberg link: Bernanke Ready to Tighten When Recovery Sufficient.
Only interesting thing today is research report by David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. I find Mr. Rosenberg one of the most brilliant strategist and economists at the moment. The report in named “A “V”-Shaped Recovery” and main theme is current S&P 500 valuation. You can subscribe on his research on the following link.