Archive for February 4th, 2011

ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update

I haven’t looked this for a while… Breached -10.0% level this time was a false signal (recession didn’t occur).

ECRI Weekly Leading Index for week ending January 28 was reported up 3.7% y-o-y. Prior reading was at 3.5%.

U.S. Freight Carloads Weekly – February 4, 2011

U.S. railroads originated 291,147 carloads, up 4.6% compared with the same week in 2010 and down 0.8% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was +2.9%.

U.S. Natural Gas Weekly – February 4, 2011

Working gas in storage fell 189 Bcf from previous week. The consensus was at 187 Bcf.

Storage level is 53 Bcf lower than same time year ago.

January Nonfarm Payrolls Rose 36.000; Unemployment Rate At 9.0%

Nonfarm payrolls rose 36.000 in January. The consensus was at 146.000, December reading was an increase of 121.000 (revised +18.000). The unemployment was reported at 9.0% vs. prior reading of 9.4% and consensus of 9.5%.

Private payrolls were up 50.000 vs. 145.000 consensus and 139.000 reading in December (revised +26.000).

Again: Huge miss in both nonfarm payrolls and private payrolls. Unemployment rate fell on reduced participation in labor force (lowest since ’80s). All in all: weak report, especially having in mind rosy sunglasses sentiment.

Morning Reading – Friday, February 4, 2011

*** The Big Picture: NFP Day: The Most Over-Analyzed, Over-Emphasized, Least-Understood Data Point ***
*** The Big Picture: Intelligence Guidance: The Situation in Egypt ***
*** The Big Picture: It’s not just commodities that will drive inflation ***
*** The Big Picture: Bernanke, still not worried about inflation ***
*** Calculated Risk: Norris: From 1983, Hope for Jobs in 2011 ***
*** FT Alphaville: S&P: yeah, housing is still terrible ***
*** The Slope of Hope: AAII Sentiment Survey – Week Ending 2/1 (by Runedge) ***
*** The Slope of Hope: How To Spot And Trade Negative Divergence ***


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