Afternoon Reading – December 20, 2010

FT Alphaville: Eight bond markets a-sellin’

Did you know? The recent bond market sell-off has seen a 100 basis point rise in 10-year US Treasury yields in just five weeks. And there’ve been only seven previous sell-offs of similar speed and magnitude, according to Danske Bank.

FT Alphaville: Why commodities may not be a good bet

According to SocGen’s Dylan Grice, seeking a decent long-term return on commodities is akin to selling coal to Newcastle: rather foolhardy.

For those in need of a history lesson, he has outlined the case of why in his opinion commodities aren’t really so swell.

The Big Picture: My thought on the yr end 2011 price target

It’s that time of the year when one of the more common Wall St sellside soothsayer concoctions hit the tape, that of 2011 year end price targets. Unfortunately it’s nothing more scientific than taking a year end earnings estimate and multiplied by typically 15, the relied upon average P/E multiple over the past 100 years. When asked myself by others for one I respond, ‘I have no idea, especially now.’

The Big Picture: Eastman Kodak Color

As seen below EK shares had massive distribution (highlighted by red arrows and circle) This distribution was a cathartic puke if you will. Now will potential future supply (sellers) already absorbed at lower prices EK shares should have an easier time advancing. Please note how recently all the heavy volume days are now on the upside (highlighted by Green circles and arrows). The recent consolidation after the high volume breakout looks like a classic continuation pattern to move higher. The measured upside move (black arrows) is $ 6.50.

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