Global Macro Perspectives
(For The Week Ending August 20, 2010) Crude oil stocks rose 4.1 million barrels for week ending August 20; Gasoline stocks increased 2.3 million barrels; Distillate stocks rose 1.8 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks were 1.1 million barrels higher; Other oils stocks were up 2.2 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 8.9 million […]
From the Press Release: The American Trucking Associations’ advance seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 1.5 percent in July, although June’s reduction was revised from 1.4 percent to 1.6 percent. The latest improvement raised the SA index from 108.3 (2000=100) in June to 110 in July. ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said that […]
U.S. new home sales fell 12.4% in July to 276.000 SAAR, the consensus was at 340.000 SAAR, prior reading (revised downward 15.000) was at 315.000 SAAR. Chart 1. U.S. New Home Sales SAAR
Durable good orders fell 0.3% in July vs. +2.5% consensus and -1.0% decrease in June. Transportation taken out the figure was a decrease of whopping -3.8% vs. -0.6% fall in June. This is game changing report, it was obvious that consumer demand was weakening and housing is cratering, now we have confirmation that investments are also falling. Big miss […]
(Week Ending August 20, 2010) MBA mortgage applications rose 4.9% for week ending August 20, prior reading was an increase of 13.0.%. Refinance index rose 5.7%; Purchase index rose 0.6%. No buyers in sight. Chart 1. MBA Mortgage Applications
Time passes so fast. Today marks one year since my first post (The World Today) was released. It has been a troublesome year both for the markets and for me. In meantime I have changed firms and I have to say (despite hardship in the process) it worked out great. 652 posts later I have to […]
Just to note…the Hindenburg Omen has been confirmed for third time. It reoccurs quite often in the last couple of weeks which is quite unusual, but I suspect this is a product of (strangely) high market correlation. Chart 1. CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index
After Standard & Poor’s cut Ireland credit rating down one notch from AA to AA- (with negative outlook) the Irish – German 10 year government bond yield spread widened to record high 330 bps. Bloomberg story on Ireland downgrade: Ireland’s Credit Rating Cut by S&P on Costs of Bank Aid. Chart 1. Irish – German 10 Year Government Bond […]
Sales of existing homes in U.S. fell 27.2% to 3.83 million units SAAR; the lowest reading since 1996. Consensus was at 4.65 million. Total housing inventory is at 4.0 million units vs. 3.9 million units in June. Months supply rose from 8.9 to 12.5 months; all-time high. Chart 1. U.S. Existing Home Sales Chart 2. U.S. […]
A kind of uneasy feeling surrounds markets today and I can see only negatives on the horizon: Japanese Yen and Australian dollar – currencies involved in financing equity bets moved against financing users. Peripheral Europe bond spreads rose in recent weeks; Greek are even close to pre-bailout levels. Hungarian Forint vs. Swiss Franc again close to all […]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index for July was reported at 0.0 vs. June revised reading of -0.7. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 3-month moving average was at -0.17. When the CFNAI three month moving average value moves below–0.70 following a period of economic expansion, there is an increasing likelihoodthat a recession has begun. Another indicator pointing […]
U.S. railroads originated 295,948 carloads for the week ending August 13, up 7.8% compared with the same week in 2009, but down 6.6% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was +4.0%. Chart 1. Association of American Railroads U.S. Freight Carloads Total
Number of crude oil drilling rigs rose for 19 for the week ending August 20, 2010; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 7 rigs in the same time frame. Chart 1. Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Change Chart 2. Baker Hughes Weekly U.S. Rig Count Chart 3. Baker Hughes Monthly World Rig Count
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: Tuesday Morning (TUES), ABM Industries (ABM), Kensey Nash (KNSY), Sanderson Farms (SAFM) Tuesday: Dycom Industries (DY), Medtronic (MDT), Burger King Holdings (BKC), Big Lots (BIG), Barnes & Noble (BKS), Daktronics (DAKT) Wednesday: Toll Brothers (TOL), Coldwater Creek (CWTR), OSI Systems (OSIS), Brown Shoe Co. (BWS), Jo-Ann Stores (JAS), American […]
Baltic dry index rose 11.7% last week; Capesize Index gained 11.5%; Panamax Index rose 7.9%; Supramax and Handysize Indexes gained 13.4% and 5.3% respectively. Chinese steel mills resumed with iron ore purchases. Indian ore exports have effectively stopped because of export tariffs / rain season / illegal mining inquiries so Indian ore is being substituted with Australian and Brazilian. With the twist of speculative euphoria and unwarranted […]