Archive for January, 2010

U.S. GDP Rose 5.6% in Q4 2009

U.S. GDP Rose 5.6% in Q4 2009. The consensus was at 4.5%, Q3 reading was at 2.2%. Chart1. U.S. Real GDP & Percent Change

Everybody’s Watching Greece

Record Bund/Greek government bond spread is crucial market moving factor today. A lot of rumors on the issue. Bloomberg story: Papandreou Says Rumors Hurt Greece, Not Seeking Aid. As I wrote before I expected a meltdown before this weeks bond issue, but apparently they manged to sell the bonds, but the pain continues… Durable orders […]

U.S. Natural Gas Weekly – 28 January 2010

Working gas in storage fell 86 Bcf from the previous week. Somewhat disappointing  draw, the futures price declined more with all energy commodities than because of fundamentals. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5-year Range

U.S. Petroleum Weekly – 27 January 2010

Crude oil stocks fell 3.9 million barrels for week ending 22 January; Gasoline stocks increased for 2 million barrels; Distillate stocks rose 0.4 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks fell 4.3 million barrels; Other oils were down 0.2 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks fell 5.7 million barrels. Refinery utilization remained flat at 78.5%. Crude […]

New Home Sales Fall 7.6%

New home sales fell 7.6% in December to 342.000 SAAR vs. revised November figure of 370.000 (revised upwards from 355.000 SAAR) and 370.000 SAAR consensus. Chart 1. U.S. New Home Sales SAAR

“Exceptionally Low Federal Funds Rate For Extended Period” Still Here

FED just released that the benchmark rate remains unchanged. The “extended period” is still here. Business conditions are improving but at subdued rate: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the deterioration in the labor market is abating. Household spending is […]

Questions, Questions…

I’m puzzled by the market action in recent days. It fells that something is wrong, but I major move down doesn’t seem probable. The news and blogosphere are full of stories on Mr. Bernanke and AIG/Goldman Sachs/Societe Generale unwinding. Both are neither interesting neither useful in investing. Who cares what happened more than year ago, […]

Consumer Confidence Edges Up

Consumer confidence increased in January to 55.9 vs. December’s 53.6 and a consensus of 53.5. Chart 1. Conference Board Consumer Confidence

Both S&P/Case-Shiller Composites Fell in November

Both S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 10 and S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20 fell 0.2% in November. Chart 1. S&P/Case-Shiller Composites Chart 2. S&P/Case-Shiller Composites Percent Change

Bernanke Boost

Markets got their boost when it became obvious that FED chairman Mr. Ben Bernanke will be conformed for the second term. The trading feels anemic, but I think that we will not see a sequel to Friday action in the next days. VIX is down, equity up, treasuries down. Greece, contrary to my views will […]

Existing Home Sales Fall

Existing home sales fell 16.7% in December. Chart 1. Existing Home Sales

New Week Intro Jan 25

Big names reporting this week, but I suspect that the earnings won’t be in focus, at least in the first couple days of the week. Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: Apple (AAPL), Amgen (AMGN), Halliburton (HAL), Texas Instruments (TXN) Tuesday: Corning (GLW), EMC (EMC), Verizon Communications (VZ), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), EI DuPont de […]

Full Blown Panic

Equity collapsed.  VIX exploded. Monday will be a big day for the markets. Chart 1. S&P 500 Chart 2. VIX

Volcker Rule

After sleeping it off and giving a little tough on Barack Obama’s  proposal of new financial regulation I still think this is HUGE. Because it is so HUGE, I have some doubts how the final version would look like. Similar as with health care reform, a strong opposition backed by almost unlimited (lobbying) funds will […]

U.S. Petroleum Weekly – 21 January 2010

Crude oil stocks fell 0.5 million barrels for week ending 15 January; Gasoline stocks increased for 4 million barrels; Distillate stocks decreased 3.3 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks fell 4.8 million barrels; Other oils were down 0.2 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks fell 1.6 million barrels. Refinery utilization surprised to the downside reaching […]


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