Global Macro Perspectives
Working gas in storage fell 124 Bcf from the previous week. Similar as with crude oil rate of decrease in stock is falling. I would say a revisit to the lower end of trading range is quite possible. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5-year Range
Crude oil stocks fell 1.5 million barrels for week ending 25 December; Gasoline stocks decreased 0.4 million barrels; Distillate stocks fell 2.1 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks fell 1.5 million barrels; Other oils were down 2 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks decreased 8.1 million barrels. Refinery utilization remained mostly unchanged at 80.3 %. […]
Belisarius has a quite severe case of cold, so light posting today. Consumer confidence for December came out at 53 vs. 52.9 consensus and 49.5 prior reading. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices came out flat. Since the indexes are three month rolling averages, fatigue in house price recovery is evident. Chart 1. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Well, I it is safe to say that again markets rallied on no improved fundamentals and on light volume during holiday time. The most profitable companies have lagged during this run. Bloomberg link: Most Profitable CEOs Get Smallest Gains in S&P 500. Anything could happen, the rally could last…. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao again reaffirmed […]
I would always go with Goldman Sachs. Since the sell side analysts and mainstream media are on the story, probably the majority of a downward move has been done. Bloomberg story: Morgan Stanley Sees 5.5% Note as U.S. Faces Deficits. As I already wrote in Shorting Long Dated Treasuries, I believe this is one of […]
The last trading week of the year is ahead of us, only a few economic announcements and a couple of earnings announcements. Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: Carter’s (CRI), Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) Important U.S. economic data: Tuesday: ICSC-Goldman Store Sales, S&P Case-Shiller HPI, Consumer Confidence Wednesday: MBA Purchase Applications, Chicago PMI, EIA Petroleum Status […]
Working gas in storage fell 166 Bcf from the previous week. Natural gas futures are stuck with resistance despite natural gas stock figures were affirmative for the commodity price. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5-year Range
Tainted Alpha is back after Christmas, first, I’ll update the weeklies. I hope you’ve all had a nice Christmas! Crude oil stocks fell 4.8 million barrels for week ending 18 December; Gasoline stocks decreased 0.8 million barrels; Distillate stocks fell 3 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks fell 3.4 million barrels; Other oils were down 3.4 million […]
I’m on vacation next week, so maybe I’ll write a post or two, maybe not. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to everyone! Free Christmas Wallpapers
It is getting harder for governments to buy United States Treasuries because the US’s shrinking current-account gap is reducing supply of dollars overseas… “The United States cannot force foreign governments to increase their holdings of Treasuries,” Zhu said, according to an audio recording of his remarks. “Double the holdings? It is definitely impossible.” “The US […]
Nothing serious, but a hint on what could happen. WSJ: Iraqi Oil Officials Accuse Iranians of Holding Iraqi Oil Field.
Although this in not a blog on politics this particular situation could have enormous impact on markets. Iran and it’s nuclear ambitions and the further developments could pose a future large shock to the markets and unfortunately I think, time wise, something could happen very fast. Maybe early as next year. Nice outline of the […]
Working gas in storage fell 207 Bcf from the previous week. Similar as with crude oil stocks this is a clear support to the natural gas price. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5-year Range
Asia closed negative today, Europe is trading also negative -0.5% on average. After I started began to doubt my calls on TARP repayments as a potential correction catalyst the Citigroup equity offering has turn out to be full blown fiasco. The offering was priced yesterday at $3.15 per share, a 20+ percent lower the share […]
The target rate remains the same; extended period phrase is here: The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels […]