Nouriel Roubini: Big Crash Coming

I don’t like the hype that follows Nouriel Roubini; ha had a strike of luck (mostly because he was sticking to his same forecasts for years) and now the media grants him excess attention. Never mind, the point I am getting to, is that his thoughts on commodities and economy are almost identical to concepts I am writing about on my blog. interview: Nouriel Roubini: Big Crash Coming.

Oil and commodities view:

There are improving fundamentals. There is a global recovery. But that justifies oil going from $30 to maybe $50. I think the other $30 is all speculative demand feeding on it—speculators and herding behavior. Last year, when oil was at $145, that killed the global economy. I worry that oil is going to go up above $100 for reasons that have nothing to do with the fundamentals of supply and demand. Oil at $100 would have the same negative effects on the global economy as oil did at $145 last year.

I could make a similar argument for other commodity prices. In my view, rising commodity prices are not justified by the fundamentals.

The part on futures regulation follows. I think contrary; no regulation here means efficient markets.

Have to rethink on my views; thinking the same as scientists usually results in flawed decisions.


This entry was posted on Monday, October 26th, 2009 at 9:14 am and is filed under Markets. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

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