Posts Tagged ‘U.S. Treasury Bonds’

Monthly Strategy – July 2010

Almost unchanged from June. Equities Only extremely favorable economic data could change the negative trend established. This is highly unlikely. So I would say we will soon see S&P 500 at 875. On a macro level, the stimulus is wearing off, politicians and central bankers are not ready to continue with loose fiscal an monetary policies, just the opposite, austerity is the game. […]

Monthly Strategy – June 2010

Little late…but better late then never… Equities Only extremely favorable economic data could change the negative trend established. This is highly unlikely. So I would say we will soon see S&P 500 at 900. On a macro level, the stimulus is wearing off, politicians and central bankers are not ready to continue with loose fiscal an monetary policies, just the opposite, austerity is […]

Monthly Strategy – May 2010

Equities With my 1,200 S&P 500 target reached I’ve moved to a kind of a ambiguous stance to the markets. Now I believe the equity markets are bound for a 10%+ down move at least. My mid-term view remains unchanged – this is just a bear market rally; U.S. and E.U. economies will experience same […]

Monthly Strategy – April 2010

Equities Although I’m convinced that the economy is not pulling a V-shaped  almost everywhere except in China and in their commodity based economy satellites I believe that in the short term the equity gains will continue. I have a 1200 S&P 500 target. I have only a small exposure to the markets (via a June […]

China Will Not Deversify It’s Foreign Reserves Into Gold

The dream of every gold bull got shattered today by Yi Gang, head of the China State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE): It is, in fact, impossible for gold to become a major investment channel for China’s foreign exchange reserves. I have 1,000 tonnes now, and even if I doubled that holding, according to current […]

Monthly Strategy – February 2010

Equities We have seen a meaningful correction in equities in recent couple of weeks, we have a market that fails to react to presumably good news, we have low levels of cash in equity mutual funds and still high number of bulls; high beta stocks suffered massively;  For me this is a setup for reversal, […]

Questions, Questions…

I’m puzzled by the market action in recent days. It fells that something is wrong, but I major move down doesn’t seem probable. The news and blogosphere are full of stories on Mr. Bernanke and AIG/Goldman Sachs/Societe Generale unwinding. Both are neither interesting neither useful in investing. Who cares what happened more than year ago, […]

Monthly Strategy – January 2010

Equities Equity performance was impressive in recent month, down to the last trading day of the year. Thursday trading showed that the investors are not so confident that the upside will continue, revealing, maybe a moment of truth. Everybody is long because of fear not to miss further gains, but scared of a potential slip. […]

Morgan Stanley vs. Goldman Sachs On Treasury Rates

I would always go with Goldman Sachs. Since the sell side analysts and mainstream  media are on the story, probably the majority of a downward move has been done. Bloomberg story: Morgan Stanley Sees 5.5% Note as U.S. Faces Deficits. As I already wrote in Shorting Long Dated Treasuries, I believe this is one of […]

Not Enough Dollars To Buy Treasures?

It is getting harder for governments to buy United States Treasuries because the US’s shrinking current-account gap is reducing supply of dollars overseas… “The United States cannot force foreign governments to increase their holdings of Treasuries,” Zhu said, according to an audio recording of his remarks. “Double the holdings? It is definitely impossible.” “The US […]

Industrial Production & PPI

Industrial production rose 0.8% in November vs. 0.6% consensus and 0.1% rise in October. Capacity utilization was at 71.3% in November vs. 71.2% consensus and 70.7% level in October. So, moderate surprise to the upside. Producer prices rose 1.8% on a monthly level and 2.7% on a year level. If we take food and energy […]

Magnificent Ben

Ben Bernanke speech yesterday has win over the markets and the positive vibes were hitting the markets even today. Nothing special in the speech, both bulls and bears had their moments, but as bulls are currently in  the lead the print was positive in all. Interesting, Mr. Bernanke admitted influencing stock markets: …Partly as the […]

Shorting Long Dated Treasuries

One of my favorite investment themes is shorting the long end of the treasury curve. Something similar (just a institutional version) are playing prominent investors (ex. and current hedge fund managers) like Julian Robertson, Jim Rogers, David Einhorn and others.

Charts

Interesting action with the VIX yesterday, break out to the 52 weeks low and then rebound to the upside. Looks someone was buying insurance after the run yesterday.

Declining Dollar

Lots of attention today to the declining dollar. Interesting article on that theme in the WSJ by David Malpass from the Encima Global LLC. WSJ link: The Weak-Dollar Threat to Prosperity.

 

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