Global Macro Perspectives
Well, S&P 500 is moving steadily to 1200. Equity markets are disregarding anything happening in the real world, both positive or negative. VIX, together with historical volatility is flirting with the post Lehman lows. Everything is just fine. It looks nothing will change, but I’m sure it will. Chart 1. S&P 500 Chart 2. VIX
As I already wrote; looks we are heading towards a breakout. Chart 1. S&P 500
The markets have arrived to the crucial point for the short term direction. If the markets manage to close above today’s close at least for three consecutive sessions we could be poised for a breakout to the above. If the today’s levels don’t hold up the route to S&P 500 1000 mark is open. Chart […]
One of the most important piece of data being reported this week is Chinese money supply. When giving a little thought to the meter, it gives a negative impulse to the markets turned both ways. If the growth continues we have asset bubbles forming and inflation threat; If growth slows down we have a threat […]
Markets still focus on Europe and in particular Greece. There are some rumors today that Unicredit and Deutsche bank have ceased to accept Greek government bonds as a collateral; there are also some rumors that the capital flight from Greece is reaching alarming levels. It looks the Greece story is approaching its climax and we […]
The markets managed to find new strength to escape negative sentiment from the last week. It looks that the S&P 500 support was broken for just one afternoon and that could prove to fuel further short term gains. No major economic data today, so just a short look at yesterdays. The big news was ISM […]
Equities We have seen a meaningful correction in equities in recent couple of weeks, we have a market that fails to react to presumably good news, we have low levels of cash in equity mutual funds and still high number of bulls; high beta stocks suffered massively; For me this is a setup for reversal, […]
I’m puzzled by the market action in recent days. It fells that something is wrong, but I major move down doesn’t seem probable. The news and blogosphere are full of stories on Mr. Bernanke and AIG/Goldman Sachs/Societe Generale unwinding. Both are neither interesting neither useful in investing. Who cares what happened more than year ago, […]
Equity collapsed. VIX exploded. Monday will be a big day for the markets. Chart 1. S&P 500 Chart 2. VIX
Well, I it is safe to say that again markets rallied on no improved fundamentals and on light volume during holiday time. The most profitable companies have lagged during this run. Bloomberg link: Most Profitable CEOs Get Smallest Gains in S&P 500. Anything could happen, the rally could last…. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao again reaffirmed […]
I am starting a monthly strategy overview to have my strategy in one place and a to test accuracy of my views. Written revisions and accommodations would also contribute to my investment discipline. Equities I have been surprised by the market strength as the market rejected the Dubai turmoil as a correction catalyst. This has […]
Could well be. Today’s extension of the rally was on the back of retail sales figures. Retail sales rose 1.4% in October vs. 0.9% consensus and 1.5% decrease in September. Retail sales ex. autos rose 0.2% vs. 0.4% consensus and 0.5% growth in September. Obviously the low base in September reading (cash-for-clunkers ended in August) […]
A lot of action on the earnings losses and economic announcements front. So, let’s start. Initial jobless claims came at 512k vs. 523k consensus and 530k the week before. Finally some improvement, but still at some 170k job losses a month.
Markets, off-course, cheered the data. All major indexes ended with nice gains of a 2% and more. We will see if the positive action continues after the tomorrows unemployment figures. Could be, consensus on non-farm payrolls is pretty low at 175k job loses, I think we could manage to beet that.
Markets on the on the edge of the cliff. I’m unsettled because I managed only to re-initiate my long USO 39 January puts position, didn’t re-initiate the similar SPY position. Risk control, sometimes you miss on lice profits. I’ll wait with that, I don’t like to rush into position after such run.