Global Macro Perspectives
New home sales rose 26.9% in February to 411.000, the consensus was at 330.000, prior reading was at 308.000. The first home-buyer tax credit program expiration again distorted the reading. Chart 1. New Home Sales Source: Blytic.com
New home sales fell -0.3% in February to 308.000, consensus was at 315.000. The disappointing news on U.S. housing continue… Chart 1. New Home Sales
New home sales fell 9.7% in January to 309.000 SAAR vs. December reading of 342.000 and 360.000 SAAR consensus. Yes, its winter, but it’s disastrous figure anyhow. Chart 1. U.S. New Home Sales SAAR MBA Purchase Applications Index also fell -7.3% to the lowest level since 1997. It’s a leading indicator, so probably more trouble […]
New home sales fell 7.6% in December to 342.000 SAAR vs. revised November figure of 370.000 (revised upwards from 355.000 SAAR) and 370.000 SAAR consensus. Chart 1. U.S. New Home Sales SAAR
The day was filled with economic data . No clear conviction from the markets. Let’s start. Durable goods orders surprised to the downside falling 0.6% vs. positive 0.5% consensus and 1% rise (all MoM) in September. Ex-transportation orders came at -1.3% vs. 0.8% (all MoM) in September. Personal income and outlays data, on the other […]
I bought USO and SPY ATM January puts today. Feels like we have some weakness coming. Most of the better-than-expected results are out; economic data coming is sluggish (except maybe U.S. Q3 GDP reading tomorrow, but here I view the expectations high, so I’ll take the risk); and it feels extending stimulus (read: budget deficit widening) would be negatively viewed by the FX and fixed income markets so U.S. government would likely be cautious with the measures it is undertaking. So new stimulus fueled move is unlikely.
Same as the day before, yesterday we saw mostly “better than expected” data from the US. Most notably new home sales were up 9.6% in July. Durable goods orders came 4.9% higher in July vs. 3% consensus and -2.5% the month before. Better than expected orders were mostly result of US government “cash for clunkers” program from which, by the way, mostly benefited Japanese auto makers. Durable goods ex transportation came at 0.8% vs. 0.9% consensus and 2.5% the month before.