Posts Tagged Natural Gas
Monthly Strategy – September 2010
Posted by Belisarius in Monthly Strategy on September 3, 2010
Equities
Economic data released in recent month or so is on a absolute and relative basis weak. The difference from July is that the consensus has moved downwards, so the markets focuses on comparing actual data with consensus and disregarding absolute levels.
But we are here to earn some money, not waste our time on lamenting whether someone (in this case consensus) is right or not.
Economic data released in recent month points to only marginal and slowing growth. Consumer demand proxies point to deceasing level of consumer demand. Unemployment is high and it is not falling. The government stimulus is wearing off.
U.S. Natural Gas Weekly – September 3, 2010
Posted by Belisarius in Commodities, U.S. Natural Gas Weekly on September 3, 2010
(For The Week Ending August 27, 2010)
Working gas in storage rose 54 Bcf from previous week. Consensus was at 55 Bcf.
Stockpiling will be higher in the following weeks (mild temperatures) so the supply/demand balance will be better then last year, but altogether bad. This points that we have only technical factors on our side, but price failing to rebound taints that picture.
Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures
Source: Bloomberg
U.S. Natural Gas Weekly – August 26, 2010
Posted by Belisarius in Commodities, U.S. Natural Gas Weekly on August 26, 2010
(For The Week Ending August 20, 2010)
Working gas in storage rose 40 Bcf from previous week. The price has fallen a lot, given macro-economic data we could see more downside, but I will follow this carefully as I thing great opportunity is developing here.
The storage before winter will not be so high as last year and we could see some production downfalls.
Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures
Source: StockCharts.com
Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average
Source: EIA
U.S. Natural Gas Weekly – August 19, 2010
Posted by Belisarius in Commodities, U.S. Natural Gas Weekly on August 20, 2010
Working gas in storage rose 27 Bcf from previous week. Consensus was at 31 Bcf.
Additions to storage are slowing down and the total storage is getting more and more closer to the pre-crisis averages. Very, very interesting…
Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures
Source: Bloomberg
Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average
U.S. Natural Gas Weekly – August 12, 2010
Posted by Belisarius in Commodities, U.S. Natural Gas Weekly on August 12, 2010
Working gas in storage rose 37 Bcf from previous week. Consensus was at 36 Bcf.
Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures
Source: Bloomberg
Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average
Source: EIA
Chart 3. Natural Gas Futures Curve
Source: Bloomberg
U.S. Natural Gas Weekly – August 5, 2010
Posted by Belisarius in Commodities, U.S. Natural Gas Weekly on August 5, 2010
Working gas in storage rose 29 Bcf from previous week.
Definitely getting more and more interesting…
Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures
Source: StockCharts.com
Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average
Source: EIA
Monthly Strategy – August 2010
Posted by Belisarius in Monthly Strategy on August 2, 2010
Equities
Economic data released in recent month or so is dominated by bellow consensus readings and on absolute level pointing to only marginal and slowing growth. Consumer demand proxies point to deceasing level of consumer demand. Unemployment is high and it is not falling. The government stimulus is wearing off.
But the market is rising despite all of that and contrary to my (correct) macro calls.
I still believe that the market is overvalued; I believe that there is disconnect in what equity and bond markets are pricing – with equity being wrong; I believe we will correct to sub 900 level in the S&P 500.
U.S. Natural Gas Weekly – July 23, 2010
Posted by Belisarius in Commodities, U.S. Natural Gas Weekly on July 23, 2010
Working gas in storage rose 51 Bcf from previous week. Consensus was at 51 Bcf.
Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures
Source: Bloomberg
Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average
Source: EIA
Chart 3. Natural Gas Futures Curve
Source: Bloomberg
U.S. Natural Gas Weekly – July 15, 2010
Posted by Belisarius in Commodities, U.S. Natural Gas Weekly on July 15, 2010
Working gas in storage rose 78 Bcf from previous week. Right at the consensus; price jumped 6%. Confused.
Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures
Source: StockCharts.com
Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average
Source: EIA
U.S. Natural Gas Weekly – July 8, 2010
Posted by Belisarius in Commodities, U.S. Natural Gas Weekly on July 8, 2010
Working gas in storage rose 78 Bcf from previous week.
Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures
Source: StockCharts.com
Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average
Source: EIA
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