Global Macro Perspectives
New: Formulation that despite rise in commodity prices longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable and; Since Mr. Hoenig in no longer a voting member all FOMC members voted in favor of FOMC monetary policy action.
Nothing exciting and new upon first (skim)reading.
Literally nothing new here.
In the last months global economic outlook has improved a bit. In U.S. we can see signs of personal consumption and manufacturing activity growing at soft rates, but growing; at the same time employment, housing, construction spending, durable goods orders are stagnating. Fall in initial jobless claims is clearly being offset by inflow of people into the workforce; job creation still weak.
Only thing interesting are revisions to the committee’s forecasts for growth, unemployment, and inflation in the next three years.
$600 million over 8 months. More than consensus, but less what was expected before WSJ story. The pace of asset buying on lower bound of expectations. FED Press Release. Slow recovery confirmed. Core inflation measures moved lower. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September confirms that the pace of recovery in […]
In the last month global economic outlook has improved a bit. In U.S. we can see some signs of retail sales and manufacturing activity growing at soft rates, but growing; at the same time employment, housing, construction spending, durable goods orders are stagnating. Recent fall in initial jobless claims has to be confirmed this week as […]
The newspaper with the best track record on guessing (or maybe pre-announcing) FED policy changes reports that the QE 2 size will be smaller than market expects. The central bank is likely to unveil a program of U.S. Treasury bond purchases worth a few hundred billion dollars over several months, a measured approach in contrast to purchases of […]
Nothing special here, FOMC is determinate to provide further monetary stimulus by purchasing longer-dated treasuries. The question which they debated on is whether to provide these measures in case the speed of growth doesn’t pick up or in case the economic condition worsen. My take is, I would not bet that they will announce asset buying programe during November meeting, and […]
This months strategy is a little bit late because your favorite blogger is feeling (a bit) nihilistic in the last weeks. We have had a nice run in September in almost all asset classes. Reasons: recent economic data is not deteriorating as fast as feared and the central bankers determination to extend monetary stimulus is stronger […]
They admitted only that the pace of recovery has slowed in recent months and introduced a hint of additional measures. Like I expected only the weakening economic activity is not fully addressed. Unexpectedly a fear of deflation and a will to fight it is introduced into statement (in two instances), in my view completely off the mark. The main […]
I would say that the market (equity especial) is pricing further QE measures being announced today. Since there was some reservation and conflicting views during the last FOMC meeting on the reinvestment of agency and MBS debt and economic data is not deteriorating as fast as in anticipation of previous meeting, the odds that FED will introduce additional QE today are slim, in […]
Integral version. In general, something for everybody. Looks like it puzzled the markets, but I think the focus tomorrow will be on FOMC unwillingness (for the time being) to “resume large-scale asset purchases”. My take: Economic outlook. Little bit too positive in my view. In the economic forecast prepared for the AugustFOMC meeting, the staff lowered its projection for theincrease […]
And we have QE 1.1. Lite. Direct monetization. Basic money printing. I’m surprised FED reacted so fast. To help support the economic recovery in a context of price stability, the Committee will keep constant the Federal Reserve’s holdings of securities at their current level by reinvesting principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities […]
We have a slow day today with no economic data in the U.S. Europe is trading on average up 1.5%, U.S. futures are up 0.3%, so it looks U.S. markets are not going to follow European lead. Sell side macro economists are following Goldman’s (brilliant) Jan Hatzius lead and reducing GDP growth both for second half of 2010 and […]